基于贝叶斯网络的弃土场风险诊断技术及应用  

RISK DIAGNOSIS TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATION OF SPOIL FIELD BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK

作　　者：李竞男 刘晨阳 郭志明 韩雨宏 沈芳 LI Jing-nan;LIU Chen-yang;GUO Zhi-ming;HAN Yu-hong;SHEN Fang(School of Civil Engineering and Architectiure,Wuhan University of Engineering,430010,Wuban,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430010

出　　处：《建筑技术》2025年第3期350-354,共5页Architecture Technology

摘　　要：本研究从系统角度出发,构建重要工程弃土场体系的体系风险形成机制,根据对弃土场系统的生命全周期划分,结合引起风险的管理行为和自然环境因素提出弃土场系统故障事件识别分析逻辑框架,开展故障树建模并作为确定贝叶斯网络结构建模的基础,然后结合专家评估法确定节点之间的条件概率,以构建最终的贝叶斯网络风险分析模型。通过重庆市某沿江道路工程弃土场为例进行说明,揭示了如何通过故障树和贝叶斯网络将专家知识进行综合集成以支撑复杂艰险环境条件下重大工程弃土场的风险管理。From the perspective of system,the system risk formation mechanism of the dump system is constructed,the logic framework of the abandoned dump system is proposed based on the risk management behavior and the natural environment factors to determine the Bayesian network structure modeling,and then determine the condition probability between nodes,so as to construct the final Bayesian network risk analysis model.Through a river road project dump in Chongqing,it shows how to integrate expert knowledge through fault tree and Bayesian network to support the risk management of major engineering dump under complex and difficult environmental conditions.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 弃土场 风险诊断 

分 类 号：TU74[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]