“双碳”目标下四川省天然气产业低碳发展策略研究——集成系统动力学和清单算法  

Research on the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Natural Gas Industry in Sichuan Province Under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals:Integrating System Dynamics and Inventory Accounting Method

作　　者：李乔楚 张鹏[2] 罗平亚[3] Li Qiaochu;Zhang Peng;Luo Pingya(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500 [3]西南石油大学油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室,四川成都610500

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第23期197-206,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(22&ZD105);国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(22XGL019);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项项目“新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议”(SC24E091)。

摘　　要：以清洁能源示范省四川为例,基于“上游开发-中游储运-下游利用”全产业链视角建立天然气产业碳排放清单并研判关键排放源,结合系统动力学模型的动态仿真优势科学研判其2021—2030年天然气产业异质性排放轨迹及能源替代减排效应,并立足发电、工业、交通运输、居民生活等关键领域实证探讨天然气“替煤代油”可能性。结果发现,四川省天然气产业碳排放构成中燃料燃烧占据绝对主导地位,其中以工业和居民生活为代表的终端消费单元在规模效应和需求导向共同影响下碳贡献显著,而系统溢散CO_(2)排放主要来源于天然气生产、收集和加工单元的副产品;在基准、宽松低碳政策和严格低碳政策3种情景下天然气产业2021—2030年碳排放量均呈现逐年上升趋势,这主要由于低碳发展新格局下天然气产业的成链集群发展;四川作为全国重要的天然气生产基地,良好资源禀赋、先进技术、良好市场、政策倾斜等优势为发电、工业、交通运输、居民生活等领域的“替煤代油”工作创造良好条件。Taking Sichuan,the Clean Energy Demonstration Province,as an example,a carbon emission inventory of the natural gas industry is established based on the perspective of the entire industry chain of"upstream development-midstream storage and transportation-downstream utilization"and the key emission sources are studied and determined,By leveraging the dynamic simulation advantages of the system dynamics model,this study conducts a scientific assessment of the heterogeneous emission trajectories of the natural gas industry from 2021 to 2030 of Sichuan,as well as the emission reduction effects of energy substitution.It empirically explores the possibility of natural gas"replacing coal and oil"in key sectors such as power generation,industry,transportation,and residential life.The study finds that fuel combustion occupies an absolutely dominant position in the carbon emissions composition of the natural gas industry in Sichuan Province.Among them,terminal consumption units represented by industry and residential life contribute significantly to carbon emissions under the joint influence of scale effect and demand orientation,while system fugitive CO_(2) emissions mainly come from by-products of natural gas production,collection and processing units;under the three scenarios of baseline,loose low-carbon policy and strict low-carbon policy,the carbon emissions of the natural gas industry from 2021 to 2030 show an increasing trend year by year,which is mainly due to the chain cluster development of the natural gas industry under the new low-carbon development pattern.As an important natural gas production base in China,Sichuan has advantages such as good resource endowment,advanced technology,good market,and policy inclination,which creates good conditions for"replacing coal and oil"in power generation,industry,transportation,and residents'lives.

关 键 词：天然气产业 低碳发展策略 系统动力学 清单算法 “双碳”目标 四川省 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] G301[文化科学]