中国对欧盟贸易中的隐含碳测算及对策研究——基于欧盟碳关税(CBAM)法案  

Research on the calculation and countermeasures of China’s embodied carbon in EU trade——Based on carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM)act

作　　者：许晨晨 徐升艳[1,2] Xu Chen-chen;Xu Sheng-yan(School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Changzhou,Jiangsu 213200;Institute of Low Carbon Economy,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211100)

机构地区：[1]河海大学经济与金融学院,江苏常州213200 [2]河海大学低碳经济研究所,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《价格月刊》2025年第2期54-67,共14页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“碳排放约束下中国城市土地资源错配测度及治理研究”(编号:22BJL052);中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科专项培育项目“土地资源错配对碳排放影响的理论和政策研究”(编号:B230207014)。

摘　　要：欧盟将于2026年1月试运行碳关税,而中国作为欧盟的最大贸易伙伴,也是碳密集产品的出口国,必定会受到不小的冲击。为准确核算中国对欧盟的贸易隐含碳排放量,利用多区域投入产出模型,将中国对欧盟的贸易隐含碳排放数据计算到了2020年,以此分析2011—2020年各行业的贸易隐含碳排放量情况,预测行业未来贸易隐含碳排放量的变动趋势。为更好应对欧盟碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响,采用GTAP-E模型,设置了12种情景,从中国出口到欧盟的贸易量、贸易条件、居民福利及二氧化碳排放量等4个方面分析了碳关税对中国的影响,得到以下结论:欧盟征收碳关税一定程度上能达到阻止中国部分产品出口的目的;关于碳关税对减排的作用,首先,与欧盟对内征收碳税的政策相比,对提升欧盟的减排作用不大;其次,碳关税对中国的减排作用微乎其微。根据研究结论,提出了扩大内需,创新低碳技术;制定碳税,完善国内碳排放交易体系;加强中欧沟通,促进多边贸易合作;参与国际气候相关政策制定,提升国际话语权等对策建议。The EU will launch a trial carbon tariff in January 2026,and China,as the EU’s largest trading partner and an exporter of carbon-intensive products,is bound to be significantly impacted.In order to accurately calcu⁃late the embodied carbon emissions of China’s trade with the EU,this paper uses the multi-regional input-output model to calculate the data of the embodied carbon emissions of China’s trade with the EU until 2020,so as to ana⁃lyze the embodied carbon emissions of each industry from 2011 to 2020 and predict the trend of the trade embod⁃ied carbon emissions of each industry.In order to better cope with the impact of EU carbon tariffs on China’s ex⁃port trade,this paper adopts the GTAP-E model and sets 12 scenarios to analyze the impact of carbon tariffs on China from four aspects:trade volume,terms of trade,resident welfare and carbon dioxide emissions.The conclu⁃sions are as follows:the carbon tariffs imposed by the EU can achieve the purpose of preventing the export of some Chinese products to some certain extent;As for the effect of carbon tariff on emission reduction,first of all,com⁃pared with the internal carbon tax policy of the EU,it has little effect on enhancing the emission reduction of the EU.Second,carbon tariffs will do little to reduce China’s emissions.According to the research conclusion,it is proposed to expand domestic demand to innovate low-carbon technology,formulate a carbon tax to improve the do⁃mestic carbon emission trading system,strengthen the communication between China and Europe to promote multi⁃lateral trade cooperation and participate in the formulation of international climate-related policies to enhance the international discourse power.

关 键 词：欧盟碳关税 多区域投入产出模型 隐含碳测算 GTAP-E模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]