中国与东盟国家水产品贸易影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析  

Research on the influencing factors of aquatic product trade between China and ASEAN countries——Empirical analysis based on CMS model

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作  者:赵亮 袁倩 ZHAO Liang;YUAN Qian(China(Xinjiang)and Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Research Center,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012;School of International Economics and Business,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012)

机构地区:[1]新疆财经大学中国(新疆)与中亚区域经济合作研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出  处:《价格月刊》2025年第2期68-75,共8页

基  金:2024年度国家民委民族研究项目“自贸试验区建设赋能新疆外贸高质量发展研究”(编号:2024-GMC-028);2024年度新疆财经大学校级重大资政调研项目“贸易数字化赋能新疆外贸高质量发展的路径与对策研究”(编号:XJCD20240012);新疆社会科学基金项目“国际陆港联盟建设促进新疆外贸高质量发展研究”(编号:22CYJ008);2023年度新疆财经大学高层次人才专项“新变局下俄罗斯对华能源及贸易合作的战略考量与前景研究”(编号:2023XGC003)。

摘  要:基于2012—2022年中国与东盟国家7大类水产品贸易数据,并将水产品划分为鱼类水产品与非鱼类水产品,运用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型对中国与东盟国家水产品贸易影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示:市场规模效应对中国水产品向东盟国家出口具有积极的促进作用,而中国水产品出口与东盟国家水产品市场需求结构不相匹配且互补性较低;中国与东盟国家在水产品出口方面的竞争态势发生了显著变化,特别是在鱼类水产品出口领域中国的竞争力逐渐降低,水产品出口结构比较单一且竞争力不足。应提高中国与东盟水产品出口市场匹配度,减少产品结构风险和各类别水产品出口风险,同时进一步扩大中国对东盟水产品出口规模,促进中国水产品出口提质增效。Based on the trade data of seven major categories of aquatic products between China and ASEAN coun⁃tries from 2012 to 2022,and dividing the aquatic products into fish and non-fish aquatic products,this paper uses the constant market share(CMS)model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of aquatic product trade be⁃tween China and ASEAN countries.The results show that the market size effect has a positive promoting effect on the export of Chinese aquatic products to ASEAN countries,but the demand structure of Chinese aquatic products is not matched with that of ASEAN countries and the complementarity is low;The competitive situation between China and ASEAN countries in the export of aquatic products has undergone significant changes,especially in the field of fish and aquatic product exports where China’s competitiveness is gradually decreasing,and the export structure of aquatic products is relatively simple and insufficient.It is necessary to improve the matching degree between China and ASEAN aquatic product export markets,reduce product structure risks and export risks of vari⁃ous types of aquatic products,and further expand the scale of China’s aquatic product exports to ASEAN,so as to improve the quality and efficiency of China's aquatic product exports.

关 键 词:中国与东盟国家 水产品贸易 CMS模型 

分 类 号:F752[经济管理—国际贸易]

 

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