美国对华半导体技术限制措施事理图谱分析及其影响评估  

Event Evolutionary Graph Analysis of U.S. Semiconductor Technology Restrictions on China and Its Impact Assessment

作　　者：张静仪 耿瑞彬 赵一鸣[1,2,5] Zhang Jingyi;Geng Ruibin;Zhao Yiming(Center for Studies of Information Resources,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;National Demonstration Center for Experimental Library and Information Science Education,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072;Big Data Institute,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学信息管理学院,武汉430072 [3]武汉大学图书情报国家级实验教学示范中心,武汉430072 [4]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710072 [5]武汉大学大数据研究院,武汉430072

出　　处：《图书情报工作》2025年第3期47-63,共17页Library and Information Service

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“面向国家科技自立自强的颠覆性技术识别方法与创新机制研究”(项目编号:22JJD870004);西安市科协青年人才托举计划项目“基于事理图谱的网络舆情事件个体认知倾向特征建模及预测”(项目编号:095920221339)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]在美国对华半导体技术限制措施不断升级的现实背景下,深入挖掘多重管制政策影响所蕴含的复杂传导链条和动态演化规律,对于帮助相关决策者洞察政策影响传播路径、把握对冲措施执行效果、及时调整政策规划具有十分重要的战略意义。[方法/过程]设计一种基于事理图谱的政策影响传导路径识别方法,从事件动态演化过程的视角出发,引入马尔科夫链模型识别事理图谱中的事件演化关键路径,据此分析美国技术管制政策对我国半导体产业链上中下游主要关联实体造成的影响及其不同演化趋势,评估其对多方利益主体的复杂作用机制。[结果/结论]研究发现,产业链不同环节企业的事件演化特征呈现显著差异性,政府主导类事件的前期干预对于企业事件演化的积极导向产生关键影响,市场响应类事件则在路径中具有重要反馈作用。因此,需要坚持政策先行,构建覆盖全产业链的多层次全链条政策体系,汇集政产学研用多方力量以加强半导体领域的关键核心技术突破,并推动上中下游企业协同合作,打造安全自主可控、开放协同创新的半导体产业链生态。[Purpose/Significance]Against the backdrop of the intensifying U.S.semiconductor technology restrictions on China,it is strategically imperative to delve deeper into the intricate operational chains and dynamic evolutionary patterns embedded in the impact of U.S.technology export controls,assisting decision-makers to gain insight to the evolution paths of policy impacts,gauge the effectiveness of the countermeasures,and update their policy planning.[Method/Process]This study proposed a method for identifying the evolution paths of policy impact based on event evolutionary graph.From the perspective of the dynamically evolving nature of the events,it introduced the Markov chain model to identify critical evolution paths of events in the graph.It analyzed the impact of U.S.technology restrictions on major associated entities across the upstream,midstream,and downstream segments of China’s semiconductor industry and their evolution trends,thereby assessed the complex mechanisms influencing various stakeholders.[Result/Conclusion]The findings reveal that there are significant differences in the evolution characteristics of events among entities at different sectors of the industry chain.Government-led pre-interventions pose a crucial impact on the positive orientation of event evolution,while market-responsive events have an important feedback role in the paths.Consequently,it is imperative to prioritize policy implementation to develop a multi-level,full-chain policy system encompassing the entire industry,foster the collaborative efforts of government,industry,academia,and research to advance breakthroughs in key core technologies within the semiconductor field,and promote cooperative synergy among enterprises across the upstream,midstream,and downstream sectors to establish a secure,autonomous,and collaboratively innovative semiconductor industry ecosystem.

关 键 词：事理图谱 马尔科夫链 关键路径识别 半导体技术 出口管制 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学] F426.63[经济管理—产业经济] F471.2