塔里木盆地农业光热资源特征及开发潜力分析  

Characteristics and development potential analysis of agricultural solar-thermal resources in the Tarim Basin

作　　者：文迪 吕爱锋[2] 李涛辉 张文翔[1] WEN Di;LYU Aifeng;LI Taohui;ZHANG Wenxiang(Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographic Processes and Environment Change of Yunnan Province,Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters and Climate Resources in the Greater Mekong Subregion,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南省高原地理过程与环境变化重点实验室,云南昆明650500 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]云南大学,云南省大湄公河次区域气象灾害与气候资源重点实验室,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2025年第2期384-396,共13页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察专项“塔里木河流域光热水资源现状与演变调查”(2021xjkk0203)。

摘　　要：农业光热资源是塔里木盆地西部大开发国家战略中核心的优势资源。然而,目前鲜见对塔里木盆地农业光热资源开发潜力进行综合定量评估。在对塔里木盆地农业光热资源时空演变特征分析的基础上,构建了综合的评价指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法和Mann-Kendall检验等方法对塔里木盆地农业光热资源的开发潜力进行量化评估。结果表明:(1)1990—2020年塔里木盆地的农业光热资源中年日照时数、年太阳辐射总量、≥10℃活动积温和年平均气温都呈现上升趋势,而≥3 h有效日照天数和年蒸发量则呈现下降趋势。(2)塔里木盆地的农业光热资源存在显著的空间不均衡性,不同指标呈现不同的空间分异特征,形成了显著的高农业光热资源和低农业光热资源聚集分布的空间特征。(3)塔里木盆地农业光热资源开发潜力存在显著空间差异,开发潜力评分均值为0.199,最高的策勒县(0.578)是最低的柯坪县(0.094)的6倍多,形成“多核心”的分布态势。研究结果可为塔里木盆地的农业光热资源开发利用提供参考,助力提升当地资源利用率。Agricultural solar thermal resources are the core advantage in the national strategy of the Tarim Basin’s western development.However,there has been no comprehensive quantitative assessment of the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin.Based on the analysis of the inter-annual trend and spatial pattern characteristics of agricultural solar thermal resources in 42 counties in the Tarim Basin,this study established a comprehensive evaluation index system and used the entropy-weight TOPSIS method and Mann-Kendall trend test to evaluate the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin.The results revealed that(1)between 1990 and 2020,the agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin,including annual sunshine hours,annual solar radiation,annual active heat accumulation above 10℃,and annual mean temperature,exhibited an upward trend,while the number of days with at least three hours of effective sunshine and annual evaporation displayed a downward trend.(2)a significant spatial imbalance was observed in the agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin,and different indicators displayed different spatial differentiation patterns,forming obvious spatial features of high and low agricultural solar thermal resources aggregation distribution.(3)a significant spatial difference was observed in the potential for developing agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin,with an average score of 0.199.The highest score of 0.578 was observed in Zhalay County,which was more than six times higher than in Keping County,with 0.094.These results reveal a“multicore”distribution pattern.The findings can provide a realistic reference for the development and utilization of agricultural solar thermal resources in the Tarim Basin and help improve the local resource utilization efficiency.

关 键 词：塔里木盆地 农业光热资源 时空格局 开发潜力 熵权-TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]