三江源区夏季降水水汽源地变化及其对降水影响  

Study on changes in precipitation moisture sources in Three Rivers Sources region and its impact on summer precipitation

作　　者：刘璇[1,2,3] 杨明祥 董宁澎[2] 戴凌全 王浩 LIU Xuan;YANG Mingxiang;DONG Ningpeng;DAI Lingquan;WANG Hao(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Yangtze River Eco-environmental Engineering Research Center,China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津300072 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]中国长江三峡集团有限公司长江生态环境工程研究中心,武汉430010

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2025年第2期38-49,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：中国水利水电科学研究院揭榜挂帅项目(WR110145B0112024);中国长江三峡集团有限公司重大科研项目(202303293)。

摘　　要：为定量评估气候变化对三江源区夏季降水影响,基于ERA5再分析数据,利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模式(HYSPLIT),对三江源区夏季降水开展后向轨迹模拟,重点分析了区域内夏季干期(2000—2002年)和湿期(2003—2005年)代表年下水汽源地变化,并定量评估了水汽源地对流域夏季降水由干转湿的贡献率。结果表明:三江源区夏季降水量在2002年出现了“干转湿”现象,青藏高原南部是三江源区夏季降水的关键水汽来源,来自海洋的水汽可能在高原南部中转后再流向三江源区,其次是高原北部和三江源本地,中国东部和欧亚大陆的贡献率接近。受南亚季风影响,高原南部及孟加拉湾是湿期代表年三江源区夏季降水增加的主要水汽来源,其对降水增量的贡献为56.4%;受西风带和北风调控,高原北部和欧亚大陆对降水增量的贡献率为32.7%。研究成果可以为深入理解三江源区夏季降水干转湿现象提供新的视角。To assess quantitatively the impact of climate change on summer precipitation in the Three River Sources(TRS)region,backward trajectory simulations have been conducted using the ERA5 reanalysis data and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model(HYSPLIT).This study focuses on the change in moisture sources within the region in the dry period(2000 to 2002)and wet period(2003 to 2005)of the representative years,and evaluates quantitatively their contributions to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation in the study area.The results reveal that around 2002,the TRS region experienced a significant dry-to-wet transition in summer precipitation.In this region,the southern Tibetan Plateau(TP)emerged as the key moisture source for summer precipitation,because of moisture from the ocean often transiting through the southern TP before reaching it,followed by the contributions from the northern TP and local sources.During wet periods,under the influence of the South Asian monsoon,the southern TP and the Bay of Bengal are the primary moisture sources,contributing 56.4%to the increase in summer precipitation.And under the influence of the westerly belt and northerly winds,the northern TP and Eurasian continent contribute 32.7%to the increase.The results could provide a new perspective for deeper understanding of the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation in the TRS region.

关 键 词：三江源区 夏季降水 水汽源地 水汽输送路径 水循环 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]