人工智能发展对绿色全要素生产率的双边效应  

Bilateral Effects of Artificial Intelligence Development on Green Total Factor Productivity

作　　者：苏晨晨 王飞[1] SU Chenchen;WANG Fei(School of Economics,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2025年第2期38-44,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：人工智能发展对绿色全要素生产率的双边效应揭示了技术进步对经济增长和环境可持续性之间的复杂关系,为实现绿色发展目标提供了理论依据和对策建议。借助双边随机前沿模型,选取2006—2022年城市面板数据,分解和测算人工智能发展对绿色全要素生产率的双边效应。结果表明,第一,平均而言,人工智能的促进效应使得绿色全要素生产率高于前沿水平19.8%,而人工智能的抑制效应使得绿色全要素生产率低于前沿水平4.17%,两者抵消后的净效应使得绿色全要素生产率高于前沿水平15.63%。第二,人工智能发展对绿色全要素生产率的双边效应具有异质性。从时间来看,人工智能发展对绿色全要素生产率的净效应呈“U”型特征。从区域分布特征来看,东北地区人工智能对绿色全要素生产率的净效应最大,随后依次是东部地区、西部地区、中部地区。第三,人工智能对绿色全要素生产率的净效应呈现出“低水平陷阱”和“高水平垄断”的趋同特征,尽管在低水平和高水平保持原有状态的概率较大,但也具有“跳跃式”转移的可能。The bilateral effect of artificial intelligence development on green total factor productivity reveals the complex relationship between technological progress on economic growth and environmental sustainability,providing a theoretical basis and countermeasure suggestions for realizing green development goals.With the help of a bilateral stochastic frontier model,this paper decomposes and measures the bilateral effects of artificial intelligence on green total factor productivity based on the 2006 to 2022 urban panel data,and the results show that,firstly,on average,the facilitating effect of artificial intelligence makes the green total factor higher than the frontier level by 19.8%,while the inhibiting effect of artificial intelligence makes the green total factor productivity 4.17%below the frontier level,and the net effect of the two effects canceling out makes green total factor productivity 15.63%above the frontier level.Secondly,the bilateral effect of artificial intelligence development on green total factor productivity is heterogeneous.From the perspective of time,the net effect of artificial intelligence development on green total factor productivity is roughly"U"-shaped.In terms of regional distribution,the net effect of artificial intelligence on green total factor productivity is the largest in the northeast region,followed by the eastern region,the western region and the central region.Thirdly,the net effect of artificial intelligence on green total factor productivity shows the convergence of"low-level trap"and"high-level monopoly",although the probability of maintaining the original state at the low and high levels is higher,but also has the possibility of"leapfrogging".

关 键 词：人工智能发展 绿色全要素生产率 双边效应 跃迁趋势 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]