基于CMIP6模式下黑龙江省的未来气象干旱演变预估  

Based on the Prediction of Future Drought Evolution in Heilongjiang Province under the CMIP6 Model

作　　者：刘涛[1] 司振江 刘岩 LIU Tao;SI Zhenjiang;LIU Yan(School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080;Heilongjiang Research Institute of Water Conservancy,Harbin 150080)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江省水利科学研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第2期21-28,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFD1500402)。

摘　　要：气象干旱是全球气候变化背景下的重要环境问题,对生态系统、农业和水资源管理具有深远影响。为了更好地预测黑龙江省未来81 a(2020—2100年)的气象干旱演变特征,基于CMIP6的14个气候模式,选取了SSP245和SSP585两种共享社会经济路径情景,结合标准化降水蒸散发指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)和Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了不同时间尺度的气象干旱趋势及其空间分布。结果表明,未来黑龙江省的气温和降水量呈显著上升趋势,尤其在SSP585情景下;除夏季外,春、秋、冬3季均表现出干旱化趋势,气象干旱事件主要集中于西部和东南部地区。研究为黑龙江省的水资源管理和气象干旱应对策略提供科学依据。Meteorological drought is an important environmental issue in the context of global climate change and has a profound impact on ecosystems,agriculture and water resources management.In order to better predict the evolution of meteorological drought in the next 81 years(2020—2100),based on the 14 climate patterns of CMIP 6,the two kinds of SSP245 and SSP585,combined with the standardized precipitation index(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)and Mann-Kendall test,analyzed the meteorological drought trend and its spatial distribution at different time scales.The results show that the temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang province will rise significantly in the future,especially in the SSP585 scenario;except in summer,spring,autumn and winter are dry,and the meteorological drought events are mainly concentrated in the western and southeastern regions.This study provides a scientific basis for water resources management and meteorological drought response strategies in Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：SPEI指数 MANN-KENDALL检验 CMIP6 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]