基于溯源分析的北江上游洪水调度方案优化  

Optimization of Flood Dispatch Scheme in Upstream of Beijiang River Based on Traceability Analysis

作　　者：覃叶红萍 李宁宁 谭超[1,2,3] 刘志敏 许景锋 QIN Yehongping;LI Ningning;TAN Chao;LIU Zhimin;XU Jingfeng(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,China;National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuary Hydraulic Technology,Guangzhou 510610,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamic Application Research,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [2]河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东广州510610 [3]广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室,广东广州510610

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第2期47-55,共9页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2024-04);粤港水安全保障联合实验室项目(2020B1212030005)。

摘　　要：为深入了解北江上游防洪新形势与新需求,保障北江上游重点防洪保护对象、下游珠江三角洲和粤港澳大湾区防洪安全,围绕“22·6”和“24·4”北江特大洪水调度实践结果开展研究,溯源分析现状湾头水库防洪能力无法充分发挥的限制性因素,归纳总结实践经验;在此基础上,充分挖掘乐昌峡水库拦洪、错峰潜能,提出乐昌峡水库优化调度方案,并考虑将锦江水库纳入联调;最后采用多维防洪效益风险指标对优化方案进行评估。研究结果表明:当湾头水库来水超过5300 m^(3)/s,乐昌峡水库提前开始加大拦蓄可有效降低湾头水库最高调洪水位1.75~3.53 m,缓解湾头水库防洪压力;锦江水库纳入联调后可进一步削减韶关洪峰流量25~89 m^(3)/s。研究成果以期为新工情、社情下,北江上游洪水调度方案优化及洪水出路安排提供参考。In order to deeply understand the new situation and demand for flood control in the upstream of Beijiang River and ensure the safety of key flood control and protection objects in the upstream,the Pearl River Delta in the downstream,and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,research was conducted on the practical dispatch results of the"22·6"and"24·4"Beijiang major floods.Based on the traceability analysis method,the factors that limit the flood control capacity of the Wantou Reservoir were clarified,and practical experience was summarized.On this basis,the potential of flood control and peak shifting of the Lechangxia Reservoir was fully explored,and an optimized dispatch scheme for the Lechangxia Reservoir was proposed.The Jinjiang Reservoir was considered to be included in the joint dispatch.Finally,multidimensional flood control benefit risk indicators were used to evaluate the optimization schemes.The research results indicate that when the inflow of the Wantou Reservoir exceeds 5300 m^(3)/s,holding back the water and storing it up in the Lechangxia Reservoir in advance can effectively reduce the maximum water level of the Wantou Reservoir by 1.75~3.53 m and alleviate the flood control pressure of the Wantou Reservoir.Including the Jinjiang Reservoir in the joint dispatch can further reduce the peak flow of the Shaoguan by 25~89 m^(3)/s.The research results aim to provide a reference for optimizing flood dispatch schemes and arranging flood discharge routes in the upstream of Beijiang River under new engineering Situation.

关 键 词：防洪调度 水库规则优化 溯源分析 北江上游 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]