基于CMIP-6气候模式的汤旺河上游流域径流变化研究  

Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model

作　　者：赵昱苏 孙颖娜[1] 黄曦皞 ZHAO Yusu;SUN Yingna;HUANG Xihao(School of Hydraulic and Electric-Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第2期109-117,共9页Pearl River

摘　　要：为探究汤旺河上游流域未来气温、降水及径流的变化情况,采用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中CanESM5模式下的3种情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)数据,基于Delta降尺度方法对未来气温和降水进行处理,并结合SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型预估未来径流变化。未来整个时期(2015—2100年)最高、最低气温和降水均有所增加,但在不同情境下的增速不同,分别为0.65℃/10a、0.65℃/10a、12.23 mm/10a(SSP1-2.6),0.25℃/10a、0.39℃/10a、11.14 mm/10a(SSP2-4.5),0.81℃/10a、0.86℃/10a、23.57 mm/10a(SSP5-8.5);汤旺河上游流域未来径流在3种情境下有增加现象,增幅位于-2.12%~52.04%,且近期(2017—2050年)SSP1-2.6、SSP5-8.5和中期(2050—2100年)SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情境下流域内8、9月份峰值径流量高于基准期,最大增量为36.69 m^(3)/s。未来整个汤旺河上游流域可能出现暖湿现象,发生极端水文事件的风险可能变大。通过对未来气候进行模拟,分析汤旺河上游流域径流变化特征,可为区域水资源配置、水资源利用和预防旱涝灾害提供科学依据与理论支撑。To clarify the future change in air temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River,data from three scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)in the CanESM5 model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)were adopted,and the future air temperature and precipitation were processed based on Delta downscaling method.In addition,future runoff change was estimated according to the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)hydrological model.The maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation will increase in the future(2015—2100),but the growth rate varies in different situations,involving 0.65°C/10a,0.65°C/10a,12.23 mm/10a(SSP1-2.6),0.25°C/10a,0.39°C/10a,11.14 mm/10a(SSP2-4.5),and 0.81°C/10a,0.86°C/10a,23.57 mm/10a(SSP5-8.5).Future runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River will increase in three scenarios,and the rate of increase is from−2.12%to 52.04%.The peak runoff in August and September in the near term(2017—2050)under SSP1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios and in the middle term(2050—2100)under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is higher than that in the base period,and the maximum increase is in 36.69 m^(3)/s.In the future,the whole upper watershed of Tangwang River may have a warm and wet phenomenon,and the risk of extreme hydrological events may rise.Simulating the future climate and analyzing the runoff change characteristics of the upper watershed of Tangwang River can provide a scientific basis and theoretical support for regional water resource allocation,water resource utilization,and drought and flood disaster prevention.

关 键 词：SWAT 径流模拟 CMIP6 气候变化 汤旺河上游流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]