非均质含水层溶质运移建模不确定性研究  

Research on Uncertainty of Solute Transport Modeling in Heterogeneous Aquifer

作　　者：董旭 DONG Xu(Geological Team of Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration of Anhui Province,Tongling 244000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省地质矿产勘查局321地质队,安徽铜陵244000321

出　　处：《工程技术研究》2024年第22期41-43,共3页Engineering and Technological Research

摘　　要：文章对地质参数测量误差、初始和边界条件不确定性及数值模型简化假设等多方面因素进行分析,揭示不确定性源对溶质运移路径及模型预测结果的影响。在此基础上引入蒙特卡洛模拟法,对地质参数的不确定性进行量化,并与卡尔曼滤波方法和传统反演模拟法进行对比。结果表明,蒙特卡洛模拟法能有效捕捉地质参数的空间变异性,并增强模型预测的不确定性量化能力,为非均质含水层中的溶质运移预测提供了新的理论支持和方法参考。This paper analyzes various factors such as the measurement error of geological parameters,the uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions and the simplifi ed assumption of numerical model,and reveals the infl uence of uncertainty source on solute transport path and model prediction results.On this basis,the Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of geological parameters and compared with Kalman filter method and traditional inverse simulation method.The results show that the Monte Carlo simulation method can effectively capture the spatial variability of geological parameters and enhance the uncertainty quantifi cation ability of model prediction,which provides new theoretical support and method reference for the prediction of solute transport in heterogeneous aquifers.

关 键 词：溶质运移 非均质含水层 建模分析 蒙特卡洛模拟法 不确定性量化 

分 类 号：P641.2[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]