投入产出框架下的双循环测度:理论基础与典型事实  

Measuring Dual Circulation under the Input-Output Framework:Theoretical Foundation and Stylized Facts

作　　者：陈全润 Chen Quanrun

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第1期18-32,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“投入产出框架下双循环的测度与解析研究”(24BTJ015);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“中国贸易高质量发展的统计测度研究团队”(CXTD13-04)。

摘　　要：本文根据双循环内涵的官方解释给出投入产出框架下国内循环与国际循环的定义。通过完整的Leontief全球生产系统,将一国经济循环分解为国内循环和国际循环两个部分。分解得到的国内循环与国际循环均为开放的经济循环,体现了国内部门与国外部门在双循环中的联通与互动,避免了分解过程中“断链”问题的出现。在严谨的投入产出理论保证下,构建双循环测度指标体系,主要包括国内循环和国际循环对一国GDP的贡献度、国内循环与国际循环中的本国参与度与外国参与度等。基于本文构建的指标体系,利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)公布的国家间投入产出表对我国双循环状况进行测度并发现以下典型事实。国内循环对我国GDP的贡献度远高于国际循环,以国内大循环为主体是世界经济发展的基本规律;我国国内循环是开放的循环,国外部门深度参与其中,在超大规模最终需求市场的牵引下我国国内循环对世界经济做出了重要贡献;我国在国际循环中的增加值创造能力逐年上升,但因外需增长乏力,国际循环对我国GDP的贡献正逐年下降。This study delineates the concepts of domestic and international circulation within the input-output framework,adhering to China's official interpretation of its dual circulation strategy.An economy's flow is decomposed into domestic and international circulation via the intact Leontief global production system.The domestic circulation and international circulation are both open,embodying the interconnections between domestic sectors and foreign sectors.Therefore,the decomposition can avoid the issue of"chain breakage"in related studies.Grounded in rigorous input-output theory,a system of indicators for measuring dual circulation is constructed.Key indicators include the relative contributions of domestic and international circulation to an economy's GDP,participation rates of domestic sectors and foreign sectors in domestic and international circulation.The dynamic changes in China's dual circulation are measured by using OECD inter-country input-output tables and the following stylized facts are found.First,the contribution of domestic circulation to China's GDP is significantly higher than international circulation.This finding aligns with a fundamental principle governing global economic development.Second,China's domestic circulation is not isolated but highly accessible to international players,which foreign sectors play a substantial role within this domestic circulation,leveraging China's vast final demand market to propel global economic growth.Third,China's capability of creating value-added in international circulation exhibits an upward trend.Due to the weak growth of foreign demand,however,the contribution of international circulation to China's GDP has been decreasing over time.

关 键 词：新发展格局 双循环测度 国家间投入产出表 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济] F223F740