政策干预存在就业稳定器效应吗?——人工智能情境和上市公司证据  

Whether Policies Have Employment Stabilizer Effects:Artificial Intelligence Shocks and Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

作　　者：董直庆 陈琦[2] Dong Zhiqing;Chen Qi

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学管理学院 [2]华东师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2025年第1期114-128,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新阶段共同富裕视域下技术创新推动的经济增长动力研究”(22JJD790019);国家社会科学基金重点项目“人工智能技术红利分配均等性与企业成长方向问题研究”(24AJY029)。

摘　　要：人工智能技术应用能够对劳动就业产生广泛而深远的影响,现有研究更多关注自由市场环境中人工智能技术的劳动更替效应,并未重视政策对人工智能就业冲击的干预效果。本文基于2010—2022年我国A股上市公司面板数据,检验政策干预是否能够抵御人工智能技术的就业冲击。研究表明,第一,政策干预能够有效缓解人工智能技术对就业的负向冲击,促进企业吸纳就业并抑制裁员风险,这种效果通过提升企业生产率和改变要素价格实现。第二,人工智能技术冲击下政策稳就业效应依赖于政策属性,其中政府补贴与社会保险降费政策的稳就业效果最优,而人工智能产业政策会加剧人工智能技术的就业冲击。第三,政策干预的稳就业效应还依赖于企业技术属性与企业所在地特征。从企业技术属性来看,高新技术企业或引进基础型人工智能技术的企业,政策干预的稳就业效果更好;从企业所在地特征来看,税收征管力度大、劳动力市场分割程度弱和劳动保护强度高时,政策干预更容易发挥就业吸纳和抑制失业风险作用。本研究在人工智能情境下揭示政策干预的就业“稳定器”效应,为积极应对人工智能技术冲击,精准制定就业稳定政策提供了理论依据和经验参考。The application of Artificial Intelligence(Al)has a broad and far-reaching impact on employment.The current literature primarily focuses on the labor substitution effects of Al in a free-market environment,while overlooking the role of policies in mitigating employment shocks caused by Al.Based on the 2010 to 2022 panel data of A-share listed companies in China,this study explores whether policy interventions can effectively alleviate the employment impacts of AI.The findings are as follows:(l)Policy interventions can effectively mitigate the negative employment impact of AI and promote firms to absorb employment and curb the risk of layoffs,an effect achieved by boosting firm productivity and changing relative factor prices.(2)The role of policies on AI employment shocks relies on policy attributes,with government subsidies and social security fee reduction policies exhibiting optimal employment stabilization effects and AI industrial policies exacerbating Al-indual employment instability.(3)The employment stabilizing effect of policy interventions also depends on the technological attributes of the firm and the characteristics of the firm's location.For firms with advanced technologies or those adopting basic AI technologies,policy interventions exhibit stronger employment stabilization effects.From the perspective of enterprise location characteristics,such interventions are more effective in regions with stricter tax enforcement,weak labor market segmentation,and stronger labor protections,fostering job creation and mitigating unemployment risks.This study reveals the employment"stabilizer"effect of policy intervention under the conditions of artificial intelligence technology application.It provides important theoretical support and empirical evidence for actively responding to the impact of AI technology and accurately formulating employment stabilization policies.

关 键 词：人工智能技术 政策干预 就业稳定器效应 

分 类 号：F316.20[经济管理—产业经济]