减税激励、供需规模与城市工业用地价格——基于市场化程度的调节中介效应分析  

Tax Reduction Incentives,Supply and Demand Quantity,and Urban Industrial Land Prices:Empirical Analysis of the Moderated Mediating Effect Based on the Degree of Marketization

作　　者：梅林 许泓莉 谷嘉璇 Mei Lin;Xu Hongli;Gu Jiaxuan(School of Public Finance and Administration,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学财税与公共管理学院

出　　处：《应用经济学评论》2024年第4期109-131,共23页THE APPLIED ECONOMICS REVIEW

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“开发区工业用地价格影响企业间资源配置效率:效应评估、机制分析与政策优化”(72203157)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过构建代表性工业企业和地方政府静态博弈模型,从需求、供给和市场化程度视角对“营改增”试点改革影响城市工业用地价格的作用机制进行了理论阐释。利用工业用地微观交易数据,实证分析了2007-2015年中国34个省会、副省级及以上城市“营改增”试点改革对工业用地价格的影响。“营改增”试点改革对于城市工业用地价格具有提升效应,且在城市产业结构、财政结构维度呈现异质性。“营改增”试点改革通过降低工业用地供给规模进而提高城市工业用地价格的中介效应显著,其增加了工业企业投资需求,但对于城市工业用地价格提升的中介作用不显著。城市工业用地出让市场化程度越高,工业企业投资需求的中介效应越大,对工业用地供给规模中介效应的影响不显著。We construct a model of a static game between representative industrial firms and local governments,and theoretically explain the mechanism of the impact of replacing the bus-iness tax with a value-added tax(VAT)on urban industrial land prices from the perspective of supply,demand,and marketization.Using micro data of industrial landtransactions,we em-pirically analyze the impact of business tax replacement with VAT on industrial land prices in 34 cities at the level of provincial capital cities,sub-provincial cities,and above in China from 2007 to 2015.We find that,firstly,business tax replacement with VAT increases urban industrial land prices,and exhibits heterogeneity in the dimensions of urban industrial structure and financial structure.Secondly,the replacement significantly improves the inter-mediary mechanism of urban industrial land prices by reducing the supply scale of industrial land.The replacement increases the investment demand of industrial firms,but its intermedi-ary effect is not significant.Thirdly,the higher the degree of marketization in industrial land leases,the greater the mediating effect of industrial enterprise investment demand;however,the impact on the mediating mechanism of industrial land supply scale is not significant.

关 键 词：“营改增”试点改革 工业用地价格 渐进式DID 调节中介效应 重点城市 

分 类 号：F30[经济管理—产业经济]