中国农业“水-能源-粮食”系统协同发展及其影响因素  

Coordination Development of"Water-Energy-Food"System in China's Agriculture and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：卢召艳 黎红梅[1] LU Zhaoyan;LI Hongmei(Economic College,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,Hunan,China;College of Economic Geography/Hunan Institute of Economic Geography,Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]湖南财政经济学院经济地理学院/湖南省经济地理研究所,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第12期177-186,227,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22BJY178);湖南省水利科技重大项目(XSKJ2022068-29)。

摘　　要：文章在厘清农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同的内涵及影响因素的基础上,基于2000—2021年中国30个省域的面板数据,构建了农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同发展评价指标体系,运用耦合协调、空间自相关、空间计量等模型探讨了农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同发展水平的时空演变特征及影响因素。结果表明:①时空演变方面,中国农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同发展水平总体较低,在时间上呈现波动上升趋势,在空间上呈现东部>西部>东北>中部的特征。②空间关联方面,中国农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同发展水平呈现出显著的空间正相关性,具有明显的空间集聚特征。③影响因素方面,城镇化水平、农业经营规模、科技创新、财政支农、环境规制和农民收入均有利于本地农业“水—能源—粮食”系统协同发展水平的提高,且城镇化水平、农业经营规模和科技创新具有显著的正向空间溢出效应。This article aims to clarify the connotation and influencing factors of the coordination development of the"water-energy-food"system of agriculture.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2000 to 2021,this article constructs an evaluation index system for the coordination development of the"water-energy-food"system of agriculture.Various models including coupling coordination,spatial autocorrelation,spatial Markov chain,and spatial econometrics are utilized to explore spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the coordination development level of the"water-energy-food"system of agriculture.The results indicate that:1)In terms of spatialtemporal evolution,the overall coordination development level of the"water-energy-food"system of China agriculture is relatively low,and shows a fluctuating upward trend and a uneven spatial distribution characteristic which is higher in eastern region than that in western region,followed by northeastern region and central region respectively.2)In terms of spatial correlation,the coordination development level of the"water-energy-food"system of China agriculture shows a significant positive spatial correlation,with obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.3)In terms of influencing factors,urbanization level,agricultural operation scale,sci-tech innovation,fiscal support for agriculture,environmental regulations,and farmer income are all conducive to the improvement of the coordination development level of the"waterenergy-food"system of local agriculture.Urbanization level,agricultural operation scale,and sci-tech innovation have significant positive spatial spillover effects.

关 键 词：农业 “水—能源—粮食”系统 协同发展 城镇化 农业经营规模 科技创新 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]