数理与机理双驱的数字孪生冰期输水系统研发  

Development of dual-driven mathematical and mechanistic digital twin system for ice-period water transfer

作　　者：任秉枢 潘佳佳 陈晖 郭新蕾[2] 付辉[2] REN Bingshu;PAN Jiajia;CHEN Hui;GUO Xinlei;FU Hui(China South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Corporation Limited,Beijing 100038,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南水北调集团中线有限公司,北京100038 [2]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水利信息化》2025年第1期8-13,共6页Water Resources Informatization

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202500);国家自然科学基金项目(U2243221,U2243239,52179082,52479080);中国水科院科研专项项目(SS110145B0052024)。

摘　　要：为加快构建数字孪生水网工程样板,采用原型观测、机理分析和数值模拟相结合的技术手段,以水温数据驱动、热力-水动力、冰水耦合的水温冰情过程精细模拟等模型为核心引擎,综合分析南水北调中线工程近10年的水温冰情时空分布特征,构建数字孪生南水北调中线工程冰期输水应用系统平台,支撑中线干渠冰水情的实时监测告警、水温冰情智能预报、凌汛风险预警、多场景冰凌生消预演和冬季防凌调度输水预案的智慧水利体系建设。系统成功应用于南水北调中线工程2023—2024年冬季安全输水及冰凌洪水风险评估等冰期运行维护管理,为南水北调中线工程防凌减灾和智能化发展提供有力技术支撑。To accelerate the development of a digital twin model for water network engineering,this study integrated prototype observation,mechanistic analysis,and numerical simulation.It employed water temperature data-driven models as core engines,including thermodynamic-hydrodynamic and ice-water coupling models for high-precision simulation of ice-water dynamics.By comprehensively analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of water temperature and ice conditions in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project over the past decade,a digital twin application system for ice-period water transfer has been developed.This system supported realtime monitoring and early warning of ice and water conditions,intelligent forecasting of water temperature and ice dynamics,risk assessment of ice-jam flooding,multi-scenario simulation of ice formation and melting processes,and winter ice-flood prevention scheduling,which has been successfully applied to ensure safe water transfer and assess ice-flood risks during the 2023—2024 winter season.This research provides robust technical support for disaster prevention,risk reduction,and the intelligent development of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

关 键 词：南水北调中线工程 数据驱动 机理模型 冰期输水 数字孪生 

分 类 号：TP391.98[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] TV213.4[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]