基于博弈论-云模型的装备维修费监管风险评估  

Risk assessment of equipment maintenance cost supervision based on game theory and cloud model

作　　者：肖斌[1] 李辉 XIAO Bin;LI Hui(Dept.of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval Univ.of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033

出　　处：《海军工程大学学报》2025年第1期51-58,共8页Journal of Naval University of Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(2023-SKJJ-B-030)。

摘　　要：加强装备维修费的风险管理对于单位掌握经费管理现状、制定应对措施具有重要意义。针对当前装备维修费监管风险管理研究理论和方法上的不足,从单位监管视角出发,首先运用等级全息建模方法识别装备维修费监管中的风险因素;其次,利用博弈论方法在主客观赋权方法之间寻找最优指标组合权重;再次,引入云模型评价方法,运用期望、熵、超熵3个数字特征来描述和量化定性概念的不确定性,并将结果以云图方式直观展示;最后,将该模型应用于实例当中,并与模糊综合评价法进行对比分析。实例分析结果表明:运用该模型评价单位装备维修费监管情况具有现实可行性,且评价结果较模糊综合评价法更加准确、直观。Strengthening the risk management of equipment maintenance costs is of great significance for military units to cope with the funding management and formulate relative responsive measures.Firstly,aiming at the deficiency of the current research theory and method of risk supervision over equipment maintenance fee,the hierarchical holographic modeling method was applied to identify risk factors in the procedure,starting from the perspective of unit supervision.Secondly,game theory was used to find the optimal index combination weight between subjective and objective weighting me-thods.Thirdly,the cloud model evaluation method was introduced,and the uncertainty of qualitative concepts was described and quantified by using three digital characteristics of expectation,entropy and super-entropy,and the results were displayed intuitively in the form of cloud images.Finally,the model was applied in an example and compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The case analysis shows that it is practical and feasible to evaluate the supervision of unit equipment maintenance fees by using the proposed model,and the evaluation result is more accurate and intuitive than that of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

关 键 词：等级全息建模 博弈论 云模型 装备维修费监管 风险评估 

分 类 号：E232[军事—军事理论]