设计阶段盾构隧道防水可靠性评价模型研究  

Research on the waterproof reliability evaluation model for shield tunnels during the design stage

作　　者：李金 崔庆龙[1,2] 郭德赛 刘继国[1,2] 吴怀娜 LI Jin;CUI Qinglong;GUO Desai;LIU Jiguo;WU Huaina(Research and Development Center on Tunnel and Underground Space Technology,CCCC,Wuhan 430056,China;CCCC Second Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430056,China;College of Civil Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]中交集团隧道与地下空间工程技术研发中心,武汉430056 [2]中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,武汉430056 [3]湖南大学土木工程学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第2期422-434,共13页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中交集团重大科技研发项目(2023-ZJKJ-11,2022-ZJKJ-10)。

摘　　要：为了科学评价设计阶段盾构隧道的防水可靠性,提出了一种基于组合赋权法和可拓云模型的设计阶段盾构隧道防水可靠性评价新模型。综合考虑材料因素、结构抗变形能力因素和水文地质条件因素,建立了包含3个一级评价指标和14个二级评价指标的设计阶段盾构隧道防水可靠性评价指标体系,并建立了相应的可靠性评价等级判据。采用改进层次分析法(Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process,IAHP)和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)法分别计算得到评价指标的主观权重和客观权重,并利用博弈论法计算得到评价指标的组合权重,弥补了单一赋权法存在的不足。同时,将可拓云模型应用到设计阶段盾构隧道防水可靠性评价中,解决了设计阶段盾构隧道防水可靠性评价过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题。将构建的新模型应用到武汉两湖通道工程盾构隧道防水可靠性评价中,得到该项目防水可靠性评价等级为Ⅳ级,属于较高可靠度。该评价结果与现场实际情况一致,验证了新模型的合理性和可行性。新模型可为其他类似项目提供指导借鉴。To scientifically evaluate the waterproof reliability of shield tunnels during the design stage,we propose a new evaluation model that combines a weighting method with an extension cloud model.This model takes into account various factors,including material properties,structural deformation resistance,and hydrogeological conditions.We have established a comprehensive waterproof reliability evaluation index system for shield tunnels in the design stage,which consists of three primary evaluation indices and fourteen secondary evaluation indices.Building on existing research,the waterproof reliability evaluation indices for shield tunnels during the design stage are categorized into five levels,with specific evaluation criteria established for each index.To determine the weights of these evaluation indices,we employ both subjective and objective methods:the Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)for calculating subjective weights and the enhanced Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method for calculating objective weights.The combined weights of the evaluation indicators are determined using a game theory approach,addressing the limitations of individual weighting methods and enhancing the rationality of the weighting process.Additionally,an extension cloud model is employed to define the boundary information of the grade intervals.This model is then applied to the waterproof reliability evaluation of shield tunnels during the design stage,effectively resolving issues of ambiguity and randomness that often arise in the evaluation process.The novel model is implemented to assess the waterproof reliability of the shield tunnel in the Wuhan Lianghu Channel project,resulting in a waterproofing reliability evaluation grade ofⅣfor this project.This classification indicates a relatively high level of reliability in the waterproofing system.The evaluation outcomes align with the real-world scenario,validating the rationality and feasibility of the new model.This model serves as a valuable tool of

关 键 词：安全工程 盾构隧道防水 可靠性评价 博弈论组合赋权 可拓云模型 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]