黄河流域城市安全韧性正态云模型构建及时空分布研究  

Research on the development of a normal cloud model for urban safety resilience and its spatial-temporal distribution in the Yellow River basin

作　　者：任捷 王迪 王雅荣[1,2,3] 刘颖 REN Jie;WANG Di;WANG Yarong;LIU Ying(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science&Technology,Baotou 014010,Inner Mongolia,China;Industrial Informatization and Industrial Innovation Research Center,Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences,the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Baotou 014010,Inner Mongolia,China;Yellow River“Ji Zi Wan”Development Research Base,the Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Inner Mongolia,Baotou 014010,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头014010 [2]内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地产业信息化与产业创新研究中心,内蒙古包头014010 [3]内蒙古哲学社会科学重点研究基地黄河“几字弯”发展研究基地,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第2期633-645,共13页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72404153);内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地开放课题(KFSM-KDSK0208);内蒙古自治区社会科学基金2024年度高质量发展专项课题(2024EY22);内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务项目(2024QNJS154)。

摘　　要：为对国家重大战略发展区域的黄河流域城市安全韧性水平进行评估,从灾害抵抗能力、灾害恢复能力和灾害适应能力三个维度构建黄河流域城市安全韧性正态云评估模型,分析2010—2020年黄河流域城市安全韧性的变化趋势和空间分布格局。结果表明,黄河流域城市的安全韧性在此期间显著提升,黄河流域低度安全韧性城市比例下降迅速,中度安全韧性城市比例激增,而较高和高度安全韧性城市较少。在空间分布方面,选取2014年、2018年和2020年三个时间节点,发现安全韧性呈现“东高西低”的分布特征,下游地区韧性高于上游和中游地区。基于上述结论,提出以下政策建议:推动中游地区经济转型和产业结构优化,加强生态环境保护和资源合理利用,提升基础设施建设和应急管理能力,促进区域协同发展和城市群建设,增强科技创新能力和高等教育投入,完善社会服务和管理机制。通过这些措施,黄河流域城市有望进一步提升安全韧性,实现区域均衡和高质量发展。This study develops an evaluation index system for urban safety resilience in the Yellow River Basin,focusing on three dimensions:disaster resistance,recovery,and adaptability.The global entropy weight method is employed to calculate the weights,while the evaluation standards for each index are established by referencing the recommended values from resilient and sponge cities recognized both domestically and internationally,as well as guidelines from the national emergency system planning outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan,regional land spatial planning,and relevant disaster prevention and mitigation plans.The study examines the trends and spatial distribution patterns of urban safety resilience in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2020 using the normal cloud model.The results indicate a significant decrease in the proportion of low-resilience cities,which fell from 85.9%to 29.7%.Conversely,the proportion of moderately resilient cities rose dramatically from 1.6%to 65.6%.However,cities with high resilience continued to represent a minority.Regarding spatial distribution,the study focused on three key years—2014,2018,and 2020—and identified a clear“east high,west low”pattern in resilience levels.The downstream regions demonstrated higher resilience than the upstream and midstream areas.Provincial capital cities generally exhibited greater resilience due to policy advantages and geographic benefits.However,Lanzhou and Xining had lower resilience compared to other provincial capitals,primarily attributed to factors such as dependence on single industries,severe environmental pollution,underdeveloped infrastructure,and inadequate public services.Based on the conclusions drawn,the following policy recommendations are proposed:Promote economic transformation and optimize the industrial structure in the middle reaches;Strengthen ecological protection and ensure the sustainable use of resources;Enhance infrastructure development and improve emergency management capabilities;Foster regional coordination and sup

关 键 词：公共安全 黄河流域 城市安全韧性 韧性分布 正态云模型 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学]