加氢站事故演化规律及关键节点分析  

Analysis of accident evolution patterns and critical nodes in hydrogen refueling stations

作　　者：康健 苏韬 靳海玉 王远 吴亮杞 KANG Jian;SU Tao;JIN Haiyu;WANG Yuan;WU Liangqi(School of Safety Engineering,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China;Altay Special Equipment Inspection and Testing Institute,Altay 836599,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院安全工程学院,北京102617 [2]阿勒泰地区特种设备检验检测所,新疆阿勒泰836599

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第2期685-693,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：北京石油化工学院致远科研基金项目(2024002);自治区市场监督管理科技计划项目(S2024040165)。

摘　　要：为提高加氢站事故预控能力,有必要深入探究事故致因间的传递模式,以及关键节点对事故防控的影响。首先,统计分析涉氢数据库中的524起事故案例,发现运营事故和第三方破坏是加氢站的两种典型事故类型;然后,从概率角度,基于事故地图(Accident Map,AcciMap)模型定性分析出这两种典型事故的26项事故致因因素,结合贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)建立因果推理诊断图,确定加氢站运营事故和第三方破坏事故的最大事故致因链;最后,从统计学角度,结合复杂网络(Complex Network,CN)建立AcciMap-CN模型,从度中心性、接近中心性、介数中心性等参数全面辨识加氢站事故关键节点及排序。研究表明,基于AcciMap-BN模型的加氢站事故链演化规律结果分析可以起到灾前预测作用,同时由AcciMap-CN模型得到的断链关键节点可有效防止各类事故衍生。As a new form of energy infrastructure,it is essential to investigate the causal chains of accidents and the influence of critical nodes on the accident prevention and control capabilities of hydrogen refueling stations.Utilizing data from 524 accident cases documented in a publicly accessible hydrogen-related database on the statistical analysis webpage,we identify the types of accidents at hydrogen refueling stations based on their direct causes.The two primary types of accidents are categorized as operational accidents and third-party damage.First,from a macroscopic perspective,we qualitatively analyze 26 causal factors associated with these two accident types using the Accident Map(AcciMap)model.By integrating causal reasoning with a Bayesian Network(BN),we determine that the probabilities of operational accidents and third-party damage occurring are 8%and 6%,respectively.Furthermore,we identify the maximum causal chains for operational accidents and third-party damage at hydrogen refueling stations by integrating diagnostic reasoning with a BN.This analysis reveals a total of two distinct causal chains.The evolution path of the accident chain for operational accidents is represented as“A_(2)→B_(2)→C_(6)→D_(3)→E_(5)→F_(2)→G_(1)”,while the path for third-party damage is“A_(2)→B_(2)→C_(6)→D_(1)→E_(9)→F_(4)→G_(2)”.Additionally,from a microscopic perspective,we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the critical nodes and their sequencing in hydrogen refueling station accidents.This analysis utilizes the AcciMap-CN(Complex Network)model and focuses on degree centrality,proximity centrality,and meso-centrality.Equipment aging,resulting from delayed maintenance and repairs(D 3),has been identified as a critical node influencing the progression of accidents.The research findings indicate that the AcciMap-BN model can aid in pre-disaster prediction by analyzing the accident chain evolution at hydrogen refueling stations.Additionally,the key nodes identified from the AcciMap-CN model can e

关 键 词：安全工程 事故地图模型 贝叶斯网络 复杂网络 事故链演化 关键节点 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]