供应链视角下交通运输业二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析  

Analysis of the factors influencing CO_(2) emissions in China's transportation industry from a supply chain perspective

作　　者：赵亮[1] 贺政纲[1] ZHAO Liang;HE Zhenggang(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都611756

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第2期801-811,共11页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为了进一步研究中国交通运输业CO_(2)排放的影响因素,基于中国投入产出表和各产业部门CO_(2)排放数据,建立了环境投入产出模型,在供应链视角下对中国交通运输业CO_(2)排放的影响因素进行了结构路径分解。研究分别从碳排放强度、中间需求结构和最终需求3个影响因素角度进行了探讨。结果显示:(1)总体上看,在研究年限内,CO_(2)排放的变化量越来越大,其中最终需求的正向影响最大,碳排放强度的负向影响最大;(2)研究发现了供应链中的4个主要产业部门,其排放及增长量均较大;(3)研究确定了排放变化量较大的供应链,并分析了其影响因素,且主要供应链具有向一层路径集中的趋势。To further explore the factors influencing CO_(2) emissions in China's transportation industry,an environmental input-output model is developed using China's input-output tables and CO_(2) emissions data from various industrial sectors.The analysis utilizes four input-output tables from 2005,2010,2015,and 2020,along with sector-specific CO_(2) emission data for each year.A structural path decomposition is conducted to analyze the influencing factors of CO_(2) emissions in China's transportation industry from a supply chain perspective.Three key factors are examined:the carbon emission intensity effect,the intermediate demand structure effect,and the final demand effect.The results are as follows:(1)Overall,total CO_(2) emissions from the transportation supply chain exhibited increasing variability over the study period.The changes in total CO_(2) emissions during the three periods were-33.91 million tons,98.93 million tons,and 147.34 million tons,respectively.The final demand effect had the most significant positive impact,while the carbon intensity effect had the largest negative impact.Among the various types of final demand,urban consumption and exports were responsible for higher emissions.(2)Four major industrial sectors within the supply chain were identified:the production and supply of electricity and heat(Sector 22),transportation(Sector 22),metals smelting and rolling(Sector 14),and petroleum processing,coking,and nuclear fuel processing(Sector 11).These sectors not only had the highest emissions on the production side but also experienced the largest growth in emissions.(3)Supply chains with the most significant changes in emissions were identified,and their influencing factors were analyzed.The four primary industrial sectors also demonstrated the largest growth in carbon emissions within the supply chain.Emissions from major supply chains were increasing,with a growing concentration at the first layer.

关 键 词：环境工程学 交通运输业 供应链 二氧化碳排放 投入产出模型 结构路径分解 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]