DARPA模仿者何以不成功?  

Why Do DARPA Imitators Struggle to Succeed?

作　　者：施雯[1] 任晓波 SHI Wen;REN Xiaobo(Shanghai Library(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of Shanghai),Shanghai 200031,China)

机构地区：[1]上海图书馆(上海科学技术情报研究所),上海200031

出　　处：《竞争情报》2025年第1期2-9,共8页Competitive Intelligence

摘　　要：情报分析不仅仅是捕捉成功的案例,也要从不成功的实践中收集因决策偏差、资源配置不当、预期违背等问题形成的宝贵经验。本文便是以此为出发点,将情报分析视角投向全球范围内再度兴起的DARPA模仿风潮,即不断有国家提出借鉴美国国防预研项目局(也译为“国防高级研究计划局”)的运作模式,构建一个追求高风险、高回报的颠覆性技术研发机构。但历年来的追随者们,包括美国的类DARPA机构,都无法复现同样的成功。作者尝试分析它们在部署突破性创新的竞赛中难以与DARPA比肩的原因,为中国应对全球科技竞争,构建更加高效、灵活、创新的技术研发管理机制提供参考。Intelligence analysis is not only about capturing successful cases but also about extracting valuable lessons from unsuccessful practices,particularly regarding decision-making biases,improper resource allocation,and unmet expectations.With this in mind,this article shifts the intelligence analysis perspective to focus on the global resurgence of the DARPA(United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency)imitation trend.Many countries have proposed emulating the operation model of DARPA to establish their own disruptive technology research institutions that make high-risk,high-reward investments.However,over the years,followers,including DARPA-like agencies in the United States,have been unable to replicate the same level of success.This article attempts to analyze why these imitators have struggled to compete with DARPA in the race for breakthrough innovation,offering insights for China to build a more efficient,flexible,and innovative technology research management system in the face of global technological competition.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 美国国防预研项目局 研发资助 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]