区域电力饱和负荷对社会经济发展的影响——以重庆市中心城区为例  

Influence of Regional Power Saturation Load on Social and Economic Development:A Case Study of Chongqing Central City

作　　者：肖莉恒 毛弋[1] XIAO Li-heng;MAO Yi(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2024年第6期27-33,共7页Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077069)。

摘　　要：饱和负荷与社会经济发展规模密切相关,预测饱和负荷值的大小和出现的时间节点及其空间分布有利于规划该地区的最优目标网架。本文采用Logistic生长曲线模型和计量经济学模型进行建模预测,并以重庆市中心城区为例,按照其发展的程度划分为高级区、中级区和初级区3种区域,建立各自的计量经济模型进行饱和负荷预测,并根据预测结果指导各级区域的目标网架规划,促进了该地区的社会经济发展。The saturated load is closely related to the scale of social and economic development.Predicting the magnitude of the saturated load value,the time nodes of its occurrence and its spatial distribution is conducive to planning the optimal target grid in the region.In this paper,the Logistic growth curve model and the econometric model are used for modeling and prediction.Taking the central urban area of Chongqing as an example,it is divided into three regions according to the degree of its development,namely the advanced area,the intermediate area and the primary area.Their respective econometric models are established for saturated load prediction,and the target grid planning of various regions is guided according to the prediction results,thus promoting the social and economic development of the region.

关 键 词：电力系统 饱和电力负荷预测 网格化 区域饱和 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]