基于MaxEnt模型预测青杄和大果青杄潜在适生区  

Predicting the Potential Habitat of Picea wilsonii and P.neoveitchii Based on the MaxEnt Model

作　　者：刘逸夫 王军辉[2,3] 谭灿灿 袁艳超 郭宇峰 王志勇 贾子瑞 LIU Yi-fu;WANG Jun-hui;TAN Can-can;YUAN Yan-chao;GUO Yu-feng;WANG Zhi-yong;JIA Zi-rui(Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;Research Institute of Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding,Beijing 100091,China;Forestry College of Beihua University,Jilin 132013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,北京100091 [2]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,北京100091 [3]林木遗传育种国家重点实验室,北京100091 [4]北华大学林学院,吉林吉林132013

出　　处：《林业科学研究》2025年第1期169-180,共12页Forest Research

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划“林木良种智能化高效繁育技术”项目子课题“云杉种子园早实稳产技术研究”(2023YFD2200605-02)国家级。

摘　　要：[目的]探究青杄和大果青杄不同时期潜在适生区分布与气候变化的关系,为多样性保护和物种推广应用提供理论依据。[方法]基于130个青杄、15个大果青杄现代分布点和19个气候变量,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟青杄和大果青杄在末次冰盛期(LGM)、全新世中期(MH)、当代和未来2个时期在高排放场景(RCP8.5)、低排放场景(RCP2.6)的潜在适生区变化规律。[结果]MaxEnt模型对青杄和大果青杄的模拟具有较高的精度。等温性、温度季节性变化方差、最暖季度平均温度和最冷季度平均温度是影响青杄适生区分布的关键气候因子,昼夜温差月均值、温度季节性变化方差和最干季度平均温度是影响大果青杄适生区分布的关键气候因子。青杄当代适生区总面积约为103.11万km^(2),大果青杄约为17.25万km^(2)。在LGM和MH时期的青杄适生区总面积分别为当代的108.87%和79.12%,大果青杄则分别是161.58%和98.96%。青杄在RCP2.6-2050s、RCP2.6-2070s、RCP8.5-2050s和RCP8.5-2070s情景的高度适生区面积较当代增加了7.62%、15.58%、50.71%和53.11%;而大果青杄高度适生区面积较当代分别减少了53.29%、51.06%、58.07%和83.44%。[结论]相比降水因子,温度对青杄和大果青杄潜在分布区影响更大。青杄和大果青杄适生区总面积从LGM至MH时期再到当代,呈现出先减少后增加的趋势。未来气候情景下青杄高度适生区呈现扩张趋势,大果青杄高度适生区呈现收缩趋势,濒临灭绝,较青杄更易受到气候变化影响,尤其是在RCP8.5情景下。[Objective]To explore the relationship between potential habitat distribution of Picea wilsonii and P.neoveitchii across different periods and climate changes,providing a theoretical basis for biodiversity conservation and the promotion and application these species.[Method]Based on 130 current distribution points for P.wilsonii and 15 for P.neoveitchii,along with 19 climatic variables,the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential habitat changes of these species during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid-Holocene(MH),the current,and two future periods under high emission(RCP8.5)and low emission(RCP2.6)scenarios.[Results]The MaxEnt model exhibited high accuracy in predicting the potential habitats of P.wilsonii and P.neoveitchii.Key climatic factors affecting the habitat distribution of P.wilsonii include isothermality,temperature seasonality,mean temperature of warmest quarter,and mean temperature of coldest quarter.Mean diurnal range,temperature seasonality,and mean temperature of driest quarter were critical climatic factors influencing the habitat distribution of P.neoveitchii.The current potential habitat area for P.wilsonii was approximately 103.11×10^(4) km^(2),and for P.neoveitchii,it was about 17.25×10^(4) km^(2).During the LGM and the MH periods,the total potential habitat area for P.wilsonii was 108.87%and 79.12%of the contemporary area,respectively.For P.neoveitchii,the potential habitat area was 161.59%and 98.94%of the current area,respectively.For P.wilsonii,the highly suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 7.62%,15.58%,50.71%,and 53.11%in the RCP2.6-2050s,RCP2.6-2070s,RCP8.5-2050s,and RCP8.5-2070s scenarios,respectively,compared to the present.For P.neoveitchii,the highly suitable habitat area is projected to decrease by 53.29%,51.06%,58.07%,and 83.44%,respectively,compared to the present.[Conclusion]Temperature has a more significant impact than precipitation on the potential distribution areas of P.wilsonii and P.neoveitchii.From the LGM to the MH and the present,the total di

关 键 词：潜在适生区 气候变化 最大熵模型 青杄 大果青杄 

分 类 号：S717.2/.7[农业科学—林学]