多形态灵活资源调控下的可再生能源配额多主体博弈研究  

Multi-agent Game of Renewable Energy Quotas under Polymorphic Flexible Resource Regulation

作　　者：王佳莹 檀鑫鑫 吴玉鑫 刘达[1] WANG Jiaying;TAN Xinxin;WU Yuxin;LIU Da(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《智慧电力》2025年第2期9-15,40,共8页Smart Power

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BGL186)。

摘　　要：多形态灵活资源调控下的可再生能源配额制是促进能源低碳转型的重要政策工具。然而,因市场主体间存在博弈,配额制实际效果未达到理想预期。为此,首先构建了配额制下市场参与主体的四方演化博弈模型。其次,分析了市场主体的演化稳定策略。最后,通过系统动力学分析了不同变量对主体策略选择的影响。结果表明:各主体的演化策略会受到自身收益和其他主体策略的双重影响;增加激励强度将显著推动中央政府激励考核;提高电网企业未完成配额罚金会促进地方政府严格监管;降低可再生能源发电成本和超额消纳量交易费用有助于发电企业和电网企业积极参与可再生能源消纳。该研究结果对完善配额制相关制度准参数的设计具有重要现实意义,为促进可再生能源电力发展提供了实践参考。Renewable portfolio standard(RPS)under polymorphic flexible resource regulation is an important policy tool for promoting a low-carbon energy transition.However,there is a game between market players,and the actual effect of the quota system has not met the ideal expectations.To address this problem,this paper first constructs a four-party evolutionary game model for market participants under RPS.Secondly,the evolutionary stabilization strategies for the market players are analyzed.Finally,the influence of different variables on the strategy selection for the main players is analyzed through system dynamics.The analysis results show that the evolutionary strategy for each subject will be influenced by both its own benefits and the strategies for other subjects.Increasing incentive intensity will significantly promote central government incentive assessment.Increasing the penalty for power grid enterprises’failure to fulfill the quotas will promote strict regulation by local governments.Reducing the cost of renewable energy generation and the transaction cost of over-consumption will help power generation enterprise and the power grid enterprise actively participate in the renewable energy integration.This study is of great practical significance for improving the quasi-parameters design of the quota system-related systems,and provides practical references for promoting the development of renewable electricity.

关 键 词：可再生能源配额制 策略选择 演化博弈 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]