时空视阈下创业榜样示范对农民工返乡创业的激励效应研究——基于中国家庭金融调查数据  

Study on the Incentive Effect of Entrepreneurial Role Mmodel Demonstration on the Entrepreneurship of Returned Migrant Workers from a Spatio-temporal Perspective−-Based on the Data of China Household Finance Survey

作　　者：林硕延 曹宗平[2] 李江 LIN Shuo-yan;CAO Zong-ping;LI Jiang(School of Economics,Guangzhou College of Commerce,Guangzhou,Guangdong 511363,China;School of Economics and Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州商学院经济学院,广东广州511363 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《台湾农业探索》2024年第5期6-16,共11页Taiwan Agricultural Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(18AJY020);教育部人文社科研究规划基金(22YJAZH117);国家社会科学基金年度项目(22AJY014);普通高校重点科研平台和项目(2023ZDZX4066);广州市哲社科“十四五”规划课题共建课题(2024GZGJ229)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】在乡村振兴战略与共同富裕目标的双重驱动下,农民工返乡创业成为一种重要的就业模式。旨在从时间与空间双重维度,深入剖析创业榜样对农民工返乡创业活动的激励效应,以期为促进乡村经济发展、实现共同富裕提供理论与实证支持。【方法/过程】基于2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,研究运用线性概率模型,对3942名返乡农民工的创业活动进行实证分析。通过构建基准回归模型,处理了自选择问题,进行稳健性检验,并深入分析了时间与空间作用机制,全面评估了2017年农民创业榜样对2019年返乡农民工创业概率的影响。【结果/结论】研究发现,2017年农民创业榜样显著提升了2019年返乡农民工的创业概率,且该结论在缓解自选择问题后依然稳健。进一步分析显示,创业榜样的激励效应展现出显著的时空异质性,尤其是在城镇化率较低的区域和西部地区,这种效应更为显著。【Objective/Meaning】Driven by the rural revitalization strategy and the goal of common prosperity,the entrepreneurship among returned migrant workers has emerged as a significant employment model in China.This study aimed to deeply analyze the incentive effect of entrepreneurial role models on the entrepreneurship activities of returned migrant workers from both temporal and spatial perspectives,with the intention of providing theoretical and empirical support for promoting the rural economic development and achieving the common prosperity.【Methods/Procedures】Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2017 and 2019,a linear probability model was used to conduct an empirical analysis of entrepreneurial activities among 3942 returned migrant workers.By constructing the benchmark regression model,the self-selection issues were dealt with,the robustness test was carried out,and the temporal and spatial action mechanism was deeply analyzed.Then,the impact of farmers’entrepreneurial role models in 2017 on the entrepreneurship probability of returned migrant workers in 2019 was comprehensively evaluated.【Results/Conclusions】The study found that the farmers’entrepreneurial role models in 2017 significantly increased the entrepreneurship probability among the returned migrant workers in 2019,and this conclusion remained robust after alleviating the self-selection issues.The further analysis showed that the incentive effect of entrepreneurial role models exhibited significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity,particularly in the regions with lower urbanization rates and in western China.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 共同富裕 创业榜样 返乡农民工创业 时空异质性 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]