基于模糊数的不确定性河道生态流量研究  

Research on uncertainty in river ecological flow based on fuzzy numbers

作　　者：谷魏鹏 刘晓民[1,2,3] 刘廷玺 王文娟[2,3,4] GU Weipeng;LIU Xiaomin;LIU Tingxi;WANG Wenjuan(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in the Inner Mongolia Reaches of the Yellow River,Hohhot 010018,China;Inner Mongolia Yellow River Ecological Research Institute,Hohhot 010018,China;Inner Mongolia Jinhuayuan Environmental Resources Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010018,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]黄河流域内蒙古段水资源与水环境综合治理协同创新中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [3]内蒙古黄河生态研究院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [4]内蒙古金华源环境资源工程咨询有限责任公司,内蒙古呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2025年第1期120-132,共13页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52169016,51969021);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金资助项目(2021MS05042)。

摘　　要：受气候变化和人类活动影响,河流生态问题突出,然而河流生态流量的基础理论和计算方法仍不具有普适性。基于1960-2020年石嘴山站、巴彦高勒站、三湖河口站与头道拐站实测流量、水位和径流量数据,引入模糊数的概念,构建梯形与三角模糊数生态流量计算模型,对比另外6种生态流量计算方法,分析了黄河内蒙古段生态流量。结果表明:梯形模糊数生态需水模型更适用于石嘴山水文站河道断面,适宜生态流量区间为701~1 190 m^(3)/s;三角模糊数计算所得石嘴山、巴彦高勒、三湖河口和头道拐水文站生态流量最可能值分别为766、668、522和559 m^(3)/s;在满足保障率方面,不同水文站间的年内生态保障率具有相似的变化趋势,逐月频率计算法与改进7Q10法的保障率基本超过90%。基于Tennant生态环境评价等级标准给出了各站年内推荐生态流量,可为维系黄河流域水文过程完整性及推动河流生态环境复苏提供科学依据。Influenced by climate change and human activities,river ecological issues are becoming increasingly prominent.However,the fundamental theories and calculation methods for river ecological flow lack universality.Based on measured data of flow,water level,and runoff from 1960 to 2020 at Shizuishan,Bayangaole,Sanhuhekou,and Toudaoguai stations,this study introduces the concept of fuzzy numbers.It constructs trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy number models for ecological flow calculation and compares them with six other ecological flow calculation methods to analyze the ecological flow in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River.The results indicate that the trapezoidal fuzzy number model is more suitable for the river cross-section at Shizuishan hydrological station,with an appropriate ecological flow range of 701~1190 m^(3)/s.The most probable ecological flows calculated using triangular fuzzy numbers for Shizuishan,Bayangaole,Sanhuhekou,and Toudaoguai hydrological stations are 766,668,522,and 559 m^(3)/s,respectively.Regarding assurance rates,the annual ecological assurance rates of different hydrological stations exhibit similar trends,with the monthly frequency calculation method and the improved 7Q10 method achieving assurance rates of over 90%.Based on the Tennant ecological environmental condition assessment standard,recommended annual ecological flows for each station are provided,offering scientific support for maintaining the integrity of hydrological processes in the Yellow River Basin and promoting the recovery of the river's ecological environment.

关 键 词：模糊数 生态流量 水文学法 黄河内蒙古段 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]