中国城市群新质生产力发展的区域差异及动态演进  

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of New Quality Productivity Development in China's Urban Agglomerations

作　　者：杨吕 彭春瑞 Yang Lv;Peng Chunrui(Southwest United Graduate School,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China;Institute of National Politics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学西南联合研究生院,昆明650091 [2]云南大学民族政治研究院,昆明650091

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2025年第3期34-44,共11页Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘交往变革’推进中华民族共同体建设的族际距离消融机制研究”(项目编号:22AMZ006);云南大学研究生科研创新项目“中越抵边村寨空心化的生成机制及超越路径研究”(项目编号:KC23235490)。

摘　　要：加快发展新质生产力是推进中国式现代化的必然要求,而城市群是布局新质生产力的关键区域。本文基于2012~2022年的地级市面板数据,根据既有理论构建城市群新质生产力水平的评价指标体系并进行实证测度,揭示其时空变动、区域差异及动态演进。研究发现:城市群总体及各城市群新质生产力水平均表现为上升趋势,整体呈“多核辐射、东强西弱”的空间分异格局;城市群新质生产力水平总体及区域内差异逐渐缩小,城市群间差异仍旧显著且是总差异的主要来源;各城市群存在两极或多极化特征;Markov链结果显示,城市群新质生产力水平具有“俱乐部收敛”特征,邻域空间滞后水平提升能增加本地区向上转移概率;从长期发展趋势看,城市群新质生产力水平随时间演进而提升,具有长期向高值集中的态势。据此,本文以先发城市群辐射带动、东北与中西部城市群崛起以及促进城市群协同发展的角度为城市群发展新质生产力提出路径选择。Accelerating the development of new quality productivity is an inevitable requirement for China's modernization,and urban agglomerations are the key areas for laying out new quality productivity.Based on the panel data of prefecturelevel cities from 2012 to 2022,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the level of new quality productivity in urban agglomerations based on existing theories and conducts empirical measurement to reveal its spatial and temporal changes,regional differences,and dynamic evolution.The study finds that the overall and new quality productivity levels of each urban agglomeration all show an upward trend,presenting a spatial pattern of“multiple nuclei radiating and eastern regions being stronger than western regions”;the overall and regional differences within urban agglomerations have gradually narrowed,while the differences between urban agglome-rations remain significant and are the main source of overall differences;each urban agglomeration has a bipolar or polycentric feature;the result of the Markov chain shows,the level of new quality productivity in urban agglomerations has a“club convergence”feature,and the lagging spatial level of the surrounding area can increase the probability of upward transfer;from the long-term trend,the level of new quality productivity in urban agglomerations has improved with time and has a long-term trend of converging towards high values.Based on this,this paper proposes path choices for developing new quality productivity in urban agglomerations from the perspectives of leading urban agglomerations driving development,the rise of northeastern and midwestern urban agglome-rations,and promoting coordinated development among urban agglomerations.

关 键 词：新质生产力 城市群 区域差异 趋势演进 面板熵值法 Dagum基尼系数 Kernel密度估计法 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F124.3