中美科技“脱钩”的国际经济影响——基于GTAP模拟分析  

The International Economic Implications of Sino-US Decoupling in Science and Technology——Based on GTAP Simulation Analysis

作　　者：刘子林 赵春磊 张志敏[1] Liu Zilin;Zhao Chunlei;Zhang Zhimin(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China;School of Economics and Management,Yantai Institute of Technology,Yantai 264005,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京102206 [2]烟台理工学院经济与管理学院,烟台264005

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2025年第3期151-160,共10页Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy

基　　金：北京市教委高精尖学科项目“2023战略经济与军民融合:大国对抗对产业的影响、互动量化及可能的对策性手段研究”。

摘　　要：自2018年起,美国积极推动对华科技“脱钩”以维护其科技霸权地位,此举势必会对中美及世界其他国家的经济贸易产生深远影响。随着中美科技“脱钩”程度加深,中美两国GDP、投资和福利水平均大幅下降,但美国降幅更为明显。同时,中美两国贸易总量锐减,进出口国别和产业结构呈现多元变动。相较之下,世界其他国家或地区的GDP、投资和福利水平在“脱钩”情景下均有所改善,进出口贸易扩张,除高技术产业进出口增加外,其余产业出口受损严重,但进口提升明显。对此,中国应通过协商谈判来管控分歧,拓展中美科技合作空间,在此基础上深化对外开放,开辟技术交流新渠道。同时,中国还需加大自主创新力度,培育新质生产力,以实现产业供应链的自主可控。Since 2018,the United States has actively pushed for technological decoupling from China to maintain its dominant position in science and technology,which is bound to have profound impacts on the economy and trade of both China and the United States,as well as other countries around the world.As the degree of technological decoupling between China and the United States deepens,the GDP,investment,and welfare levels of both countries decline significantly,but the decline in the United States is more obvious.At the same time,the total trade volume between the two countries sharply decreases,and the country of origin and industrial structure of imports and exports show diverse changes.In contrast,the GDP,investment,and welfare levels of other countries or regions around the world improve slightly in the scenario of technological decoupling,and their trade volume expands.Except for high-tech industries,the export of other industries is severely damaged,but the import is significantly improved.In this regard,China should manage differences through negotiation and expand the space for science and technology coo-peration between the two countries.At the same time,China should deepen its opening-up and open up new channels for technological exchanges on this basis.In addition,China should increase its efforts in independent innovation and cultivate new quality productivity to achieve the autonomous and controllable industrial supply chain.

关 键 词：科技“脱钩” GTAP 经济贸易 高技术产业 GDP 投资 福利水平 技术交流 

分 类 号：F752.4[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.67[经济管理—产业经济]