2009—2023年衡阳市丙型肝炎流行特征分析及自回归积分滑动平均模型对趋势预测的应用效果  

Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis C in Hengyang City from 2009 to 2023 and the application effect of autoregressive integrated moving average model for trend prediction

作　　者：谭璇[1] 周明莉 任琼[1] 王先玲[1] 邓小明[1] TAN Xuan;ZHOU Ming-li;REN Qiong;WANG Xian-ling;DENG Xiao-ming(Department of STD AIDS Prevention and Control,Hengyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]衡阳市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防治科,湖南421001

出　　处：《慢性病学杂志》2025年第1期1-5,共5页Chronic Pathematology Journal

基　　金：衡阳市科技计划项目(202330046377)

摘　　要：目的 探究2009—2023年衡阳市丙型肝炎流行特征并评估自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对趋势预测的效果,以期为衡阳市的防控策略提供数据支持。方法 采用描述性流行病学方法,对衡阳市2009—2023年报告的丙型肝炎病例进行统计分析,并建立ARIMA模型。通过比较2023年7—12月的预测病例数与实际值,检验模型预测的准确性。结果2009—2023年衡阳市累计报告丙型肝炎病例22 955例,年均发病率为21.52/10万,历年各月均有发病,无明显季节特征;报告病例数以50~59岁年龄段最多,为6 570例(28.62%);男性略多于女性(性别比为1.05∶1);职业为农民占比最高(54.42%)。确定最优化的ARIMA模型,其参数设定为ARIMA (1,1,2)(0,1,1)12,平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)为18.35%,预测性能较好。结论 衡阳市丙型肝炎发病率自2009年开始呈逐年上升趋势,2019达到峰值后开始下降,2023年又出现上升趋势。ARIMA模型对于预测衡阳市丙型肝炎发病情况效果较好,可为防控措施的制订提供参考。Objective To explore the epidemic characteristics of Hepatitis C in Hengyang City from 2009 to 2023 and to evaluate the effectiveness of the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model for trend prediction,in order to offer supporting datas for the prevention and control strategy of Hengyang City.Methods Using descriptive epidemiological methods,statistical analysis was conducted on hepatitis C cases reported in Hengyang from 2009 to 2023,and an ARIMA model was established.The predictive accuracy of the model was tested by comparing the predicted number of cases with the actual values from July to December 2023.Results Between 2009 and 2023,Hengyang City reported a total of 22955 hepatitis C cases,the average annual incidence was 21.52/100000.Cases occurred throughout the year without a significant seasonal pattern;the highest number of reported cases was in the age range of 50-59 years old,with 6570 cases(28.62%);males slightly outnumbered females(sex ratio was 1.05∶1);and the largest proportion of cases was among farmers(54.42%).The optimized ARIMA model was determined to be ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12,with a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 18.35%,indicating good predictive performance.Conclusions The incidence rate of Hepatitis C in Hengyang City has been increasing annually since 2009,reached a peak in 2019,began to decline,and showed an upward trend again in 2023.The ARIMA model is effective for predicting the occurrence of hepatitis C in Hengyang City and can provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 发病率 流行特征 自回归积分滑动平均模型 拟合 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R512.63[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]