非洲地区典型收缩城市识别与投资风险探讨——基于2013—2021年人口网格及夜间灯光数据  

作　　者：张旻薇 黄玉霖 刘合林[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学建筑与城市规划学院

出　　处：《复旦公共行政评论》2024年第1期148-166,共19页Fudan Public Administration Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“城市碳汇空间识别、水平测度及效能提升的规划路径研究——以武汉市为例”(编号:52278063)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：作为“一带一路”上的重要大洲,非洲地区与我国的经济与社会联系日渐紧密。但是,当前国内学界对非洲地区的研究仍偏重于“中—非”关系的视角,较少从非洲地区的自身社会经济情况出发,探讨当地的发展问题以及对应的潜在投资风险。本文通过引入“收缩城市”的相关理论与方法,在辨析收缩成因与投资风险关系的基础上,分别利用LandScan人口网格数据和NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,对2013—2021年间非洲地区6453个城市聚落的人口、经济变动进行分析,重点识别长期持续低迷、短期剧烈收缩的城市。然后,结合典型的收缩城市案例地区,分析导致当地发展滞胀、人口流失、经济衰退的长期结构性因素或短期危机事件,探讨与之对应的投资风险。研究结果有利于增进对非洲城市地区基本情况的认识,使“一带一路”倡议更好地对接当地发展需求,降低相关投资风险。As Africa is a significant continent within the“Belt and Road”initiative,the economic and social ties between China and Africa have become increasingly close.However,current domestic research on Africa stillpredominantly focuses on the“China-Africa”perspective,with less attention paid to the continent's own socio-economic conditions and the exploration of local development issues and potential investment risks.This paper introduces theories and methods related to“shrinking cities”and,based on an analysis of the causes of shrinkage and investment risks,utilizes LandScan population grid data and NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data to analyze population and economic changes in 6453 urban settlements in Africa from 2013 to 2021,with a focus on identifying cities that have experienced long-term decline or short-term dramatic shrinkage.Subsequently,by examining typical cases of shrinking cities,analyzes the long-term structural factors or short-term crisis events that have led to local development stagnation,population loss,and economic downturn,discussing the corresponding investment risks.The results of this study aim to enhance understanding of the basic conditions of urban areas in Africa,facilitating“Belt and Road”investments that better align with local development needs and reduce associated investment risks.

关 键 词：非洲 收缩城市 人口收缩 经济收缩 夜间灯光 一带一路 投资风险 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] D822.34[政治法律—政治学] F14[政治法律—外交学]