经济政策不确定性与垂直专业化分工——来自中国制造业企业的微观证据  

Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Vertical Specialization-Micro Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

作　　者：聂爱云[1] 江春云 沈立锦 Aiyun Nie;Chunyun Jiang;Lijin Shen

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学政法学院,江西省南昌市330022 [2]江西省青云谱区新经济产业集聚区管理委员会,南昌市330001 [3]江西财经大学应用经济学院,江西省南昌市330013

出　　处：《产业经济评论(山东大学)》2024年第1期85-115,共31页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“人工智能对制造业转型升级的影响研究”(23AZD085);国家自然科学基金项目“机器人使用的就业与收入效应:理论机制、微观证据与政策设计”(72163016);江西师范大学教改课题:基于“新文科”建设的公共管理专业人才培养模式研究(JXSDJG2357)资助

摘　　要：近年来,不确定性冲击成为中国企业面临的重大挑战。本文理论分析表明,经济政策不确定性会增加企业的交易成本并加剧融资约束,进而对企业分工水平产生重要影响。基于中国制造业企业数据和不确定性指数,实证研究发现:(1)经济政策不确定性上升显著降低了中国制造业企业的专业化分工水平,这一结论在一系列稳健性检验下依然成立。(2)机制检验表明,增加外部交易成本和加剧融资约束是经济政策不确定性降低专业化分工水平的两大主要途径。(3)在资产专用性更高的企业、小规模企业以及市场规模较小的企业,不确定性对分工的抑制作用更加显著。(4)进一步分析表明,经济政策不确定性不利于企业专业化生产,并最终降低了企业生产率。本文为认识不确定性冲击与企业边界调整提供了经验证据,也为政府更好地平抑不确定性冲击的负面影响提供了重要的政策启示。In recent years,the impact of uncertainty has become a major challenge for Chinese enterprises.The theoretical analysis of this paper shows that the uncertainty of economic policy will increase the transaction cost of enterprises and aggravate the financing constraints,which will have an important impact on the level of specialization of enterprises.Based on the data and uncertainty index of Chinese manufacturing enterprises,the empirical study shows that:(1)The rise of economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces the level of specialization of Chinese manufacturing enterprises,and the conclusion remains valid under a series of robustness tests.(2)The mechanism test shows that increasing external transaction costs and intensifying financing constraints are the two main ways for economic policy uncertainty to reduce the level of specialization.(3)In enterprises with higher asset specificity,small-scale and smaller market size,uncertainty has a more significant inhibitory effect on division of labor.(4)Further analysis shows that the uncertainty of economic policy is not conducive to the specialized production of enterprises,and ultimately reduces the productivity of enterprises.This paper provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of uncertainty and the adjustment of enterprise boundaries,and also provides important policy enlightenment for the government to better suppress the negative impact of uncertainty shocks.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 专业化分工 交易成本 融资约束 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F425