基于多区域CGE的能源排放与运输融合政策研究  

Analysis of combined emission and transportation policies using a multi-regional CGE model

作　　者：王宗保 钟鸣[1,2] 马晓凤[1,2] WANG Zong-bao;ZHONG Ming;MA Xiao-feng(Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《长安大学学报(自然科学版)》2024年第5期194-203,共10页Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2601300)

摘　　要：碳税政策和“输煤转输电”政策是减少能源受端地区碳排放和推进以电代煤的重要手段,但是现有研究较少对这2种政策的综合影响进行对比分析。为了定量分析上述融合政策综合影响,基于多区域可计算一般均衡建模方法,构建区域能源排放与运输融合政策分析模型。该模型通过模拟相关政策对地区碳排放和区域贸易的多边影响,为地区碳排放控制和能源输送策略提供参考。并以长三角地区为研究对象,深入分析该地区的排放与运输政策对经济发展、二氧化碳排放、能源需求结构以及区域间能源调入的影响。研究结果表明:“输煤转输电”政策和碳税政策均有利于推动长三角地区电力消费的增长和抑制二氧化碳排放;“输煤转输电”政策制定需要考虑地区的能源需求结构,在“输煤转输电”转变比例为0.15时,该政策不仅带动GDP增长和电力消费提升,还能有效减少地区的二氧化碳排放;碳税政策也可抑制二氧化碳排放,但对地区GDP产生不利影响;考虑到碳税政策对电力需求的刺激作用,在实施碳税政策的同时,适度提升“输煤转输电”的转换比,更有利于能源受端地区的经济发展和电力调入量;当地区碳税价格为120元/t时,为了优化GDP表现,建议将转换比例调至约0.12;对于能源低碳转型的重点地区,需要综合运用排放与运输政策,提升地区低碳发展水平。Implementing the carbon tax and shifting energy inputs from coal to electricity are vital for mitigating carbon emissions in the energy-recipient region.However,limited studies have thoroughly examined the combined impacts of these two policies.An analysis model for combined energy emission and transportation policy was developed based on the multi-regional computable general equilibrium(CGE)modeling approach to quantitively analyze the comprehensive impact of the above policies.The proposed model evaluated the multifaceted effects of different policy portfolios,providing a reference for regional carbon emission control and energy transportation strategies.Taking the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region as the case study,the impacts of emission and transportation policies on economic development,carbon dioxide emissions,energy demand structure,and inter-regional energy imports were analyzed.The results show that both the coal-to-electricity transformation and regional carbon tax policies are beneficial in promoting electricity consumption and curbing carbon dioxide emissions in the YRD region.The formulation of the coal-to-electricity policy needs to take into account the region's energy demand structure.At a transformation ratio of 0.15,this policy stimulates GDP growth and increases electricity consumption,and effectively reduces the region's carbon dioxide emissions.In comparison,while the carbon tax policy also effectively reduces regional carbon dioxide emissions,it hurts regional GDP.Given the stimulating effects of the carbon tax policy on electricity demand,its concurrent implementation with a well-formulated energy transformation policy can not only foster economic development in the energy-recipient region,but also stimulate power imports from energy-production regions.In the scenario where the regional carbon tax price is 120 RMB/ton,adjusting the transformation ratio to approximately 0.12 is recommended to optimize GDP performance.Therefore,for the key regions in the transition to low-carbon economies,it is

关 键 词：交通工程 能源与运输政策 可计算一般均衡 能源运输 碳税 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]