基于灰色理论的连杆轴瓦磨损寿命预测  

Prediction of Bearing Wear Life of Connecting Rod Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：高云霄 屠力月 郭一村 钟宁 胡洪伟 GAO Yunxiao;TU Liyue;GUO Yicun;ZHONG Ning;HU Hongwei(CSSC Southwest(Chongqing)Equipment Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 401123,China;Chongqing Yuejin Machinery Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 402160,China)

机构地区：[1]中船西南(重庆)装备研究院有限公司,重庆401123 [2]重庆跃进机械厂有限公司,重庆402160

出　　处：《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2024年第S1期12-20,共9页Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing

基　　金：国防科工局技术基础科研项目(JSJT2021206A001)资助

摘　　要：连杆轴瓦在实际使用过程中存在因启停工况油液润滑不良而造成轴瓦磨损的现象,影响轴瓦和柴油机的使用寿命,因此建立轴瓦磨损寿命预测模型具有重要的意义。依据启停试验台获取的轴瓦磨损试验数据,提出了基于灰色理论的轴瓦磨损寿命预测方法。通过轴瓦启停试验台开展轴瓦启停试验,实测不同启停次数后的实际厚度试验数据;运用灰色理论建立GM (1, 1)模型,预测轴瓦不同启停次数下的磨损深度;考虑轴瓦磨损量、镀层厚度分布的几何分散性,构建了轴瓦启停次数、磨损量和镀层厚度的分布函数模型;应用应力强度干涉理论和蒙特卡洛方法评估了轴瓦不同启停次数下的可靠度。结果表明,轴瓦的磨损深度与启停次数满足线性关系;轴瓦在启停3 100次时,其磨损可靠度为90%。该方法可以在测试数据量很少的情况下预测连杆轴瓦的寿命,给出连杆轴瓦的可靠性基础数据,为柴油机的可靠性预计、连杆轴瓦的定时维修等提供依据。There is a phenomenon of bearing wear in the actual use of connecting rod bearing bush due to the poor lubrication of the oil in the start and stop condition,whic affects the service life of bearing bush and diesel engine,so it is of great significance to establish a prediction model of bearing bush wear life.Based on the bearing wear test data obtained from the start-stop test bench,a method of bearing wear life prediction based on grey theory is proposed.The start-stop test of bearing bush is carried out through the start-stop test bench,and the actual thickness test data after different start-stop times are measured.The GM(1,1)model is established by grey theory,and the wear depth of the bearing under different start-stop times is predicted by this model.Considering the geometric dispersion of bearing wear amount and coating thickness distribution,a distribution function model of start-stop times of bearing bush,wear amount and coating thickness is established.The stress intensity interference theory and Monte Carlo method are used to evaluate the reliability of the bearing under different start-stop times.The results show that the wear depth of the bearing bush meets the linear relationship with the number of start-stop.When the bearing bush starts and stops 3100 times,its wear reliability is 90%.This method can predict the life of the connecting rod bearing bush with little test data,and give the basic reliability data of the connecting rod bearing bush,which provides the basis for the reliability prediction of the diesel engine and the regular maintenance of the connecting rod bearing bush.

关 键 词：轴瓦 寿命预测 小子样 灰色理论 应力强度干涉理论 

分 类 号：TB114.39[理学—概率论与数理统计]