社会保险缴费对劳动者工资的影响:理论机制与实证检验——基于中国流动人口动态监测数据的分析  

The Impact of Social Insurance Contributions on Workers’Wages:Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Test—Analysis Based on China's Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Data

作　　者：刘庆玉 梅胜 Qingyu Liu;Sheng Mei

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学政法学院,江西省南昌市330022 [2]山东大学审计处,山东省济南市250100

出　　处：《产业经济评论(山东大学)》2024年第2期102-122,共21页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：江西省社科规划项目“改革劳动合同法对江西民营经济发展的影响研究(编号:20WT40)”;国家社科基金项目“AI算法下骑手工作压力、职业伤害与就业保护优化研究(编号:22BGL206)”资助

摘　　要：近年来,中国政府多次运用社会保险降费政策减轻企业负担,但政策有效性依赖于社会保险费的分担状况。本文提出了一个基于不确定性风险的社会保险参与模型以观察社会保险缴费对劳动者工资的理论影响,再利用中国流动人口动态监测数据进行实证分析。普通最小二乘估计结果显示,单位缴纳了养老保险费的劳动者比没有养老保险的劳动者收入更高,但这并不意味着缴纳养老保险费会提高劳动者收入。随后,本文构建工具变量并进行了新的估计,与许多文献不同,结果表明单位缴纳养老保险费会降低工资水平,缴纳“四险一金”的劳动者替企业分担了本应由后者承担的费用的20%~40%,约合劳动者工资的8%~16%。该结果对重新审视社会保险降费政策具有启示价值。In recent years,the Chinese government has repeatedly used social insurance fee reduction policies to alleviate corporate burdens.However,the effectiveness of the policies depends on the sharing status of social insurance fees.This paper proposes a social insurance participation model based on uncertain risk to observe the theoretical impact of social insurance contributions on workers’wages,and then conducts an empirical analysis using dynamic monitoring data of China's migrant population.Ordinary least squares estimation results show that the income of workers who have paid pension insurance premiums is higher than that of workers without pension insurance,but this does not mean that paying pension insurance premiums will increase the income of workers.Then,this paper constructs the instrumental variables and makes a new estimate.Unlike many literatures,the results show that employer contributions to pension insurance reduce wage levels,and the workers who pay the“four insurances and one fund”share 20%-40%of the cost that should be borne by the enterprise,about 8%-16%of the wages of the workers.The result has enlightening value to re-examine the social insurance fee reduction policy.

关 键 词：社会保险 工资 工具变量 风险偏好 

分 类 号：F842.61[经济管理—保险] F249.24[社会学—人口学] C924.24