失业率影响了职业中断持续时间吗?——来自2014—2022年CFPS的证据  

Does Unemployment Rate Affect the Duration of Career Interruptions?Evidence from the CFPS Data 2014—2022

作　　者：陆旸 孟繁成 LU Yang;MENG Fancheng(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《东北财经大学学报》2025年第1期26-40,共15页Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院青年人才“培远计划”。

摘　　要：近年来,中国潜在经济增长率有所放缓,新冠疫情和外需冲击又进一步加剧了经济增长率和失业率的波动。在此背景下,劳动力市场中的微观个体也会受到宏观经济周期波动的影响。本文基于2014—2022年CFPS调查数据中的个人工作转换历史,构建了2012—2022年职业中断持续时间数据库,同时将国家统计局公布的月度调查失业率匹配进CFPS微观调查数据库,对重复职业中断的样本采用差分方法进行估计。研究发现,中国月度调查失业率均值每上升1个百分点,职业中断持续时间将平均延长8—10个月。在新冠疫情期间(2020—2022年),职业中断的持续时间平均延长了5.462个月。此外,职业中断具有明显的异质性,个体的性别、受教育程度和年龄等因素都影响着职业中断之后职业回归的可能性。但是,本文并没有发现失业率的上升强化了这种异质性。本文对政府设计就业友好型政策具有重要的参考意义。Summary:In recent years,China’s potential growth rate has slowed down,with the COVID-19 pandemic and external demand shocks further exacerbating fluctuations in economic growth rates and unemployment levels.However,existing studies typically focus on analyzing the impact of childbirth on women’s career interruptions from the perspective of wages and income,and lack analysis of the duration of individual career interruptions from a macroeconomic perspective.Particularly,how major events such as macroeconomic cycles and the COVID-19 pandemic affect the duration of career interruptions has not been fully studied.The findings of the study indicate that for every 1 percentage point increase in the monthly unemployment rate,the duration of career interruptions is extended by an additional 8 to 10 months.During the COVID-19 pandemic period(2020—2022),career interruption durations were on average extended by 5.5 months.Furthermore,the study reveals significant heterogeneity in the duration of career interruptions across different demographic groups.Factors such as the individual’s age,gender,education level,and number of children have a substantial impact on the likelihood of re-entering the labor market after a career interruption.However,the study does not find evidence that an increase in the unemployment rate has exacerbated the heterogeneity across groups.The paper makes two key contributions relative to the existing literature.It first investigates the impact of macroeconomic cycles,represented by the surveyed unemployment rate,on the duration of career interruptions.Regardless of the estimation method used,the study consistently finds a positive correlation between the average monthly unemployment rate and the duration of career interruptions.Then,by incorporating the latest CFPS data from 2022,the study evaluates the specific impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on career interruptions,showing that individuals’career interruption durations were significantly extended during the pandemic years.These findings

关 键 词：失业率 职业中断 工作转换 月度调查失业率 中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]