基于反事实推断的自动驾驶路测险态场景推演  

Autonomous Driving Road Test Risk Scenario Inference Based on Counterfactual Analysis

作　　者：涂辉招[1] 刘建泉 卫雨桐 王万锦 郭静秋 汪敏 TU Huizhao;LIU Jianquan;WEI Yutong;WANG Wanjin;GUO Jingqiu;WANG Min(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100088,China;Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100088 [3]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期223-232,共10页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：上海市科委项目(22dz1203400);国家自然科学基金(52372339)。

摘　　要：以自动驾驶接管案例数据为基础,辨析接管干预类型及其与场景要素的关系,构建自动驾驶路测信任接管、避险接管及优化接管3类险态场景;通过搭建CARLA-SUMO联合仿真平台,以反事实推断方法还原险态场景,利用路测实际数据训练自动驾驶车辆模型,并推演险态场景下自动驾驶运行状况,从安全、效率、舒适度等维度提出自动驾驶智能行驶水平评价指标。分析表明,反事实推断方法在实现自动驾驶路测险态场景推演方面具有优异表现;同类险态场景下自动驾驶小客车智能行驶水平优于卡车;不同类险态场景的场景要素差异性显著,且相较于其他类型接管场景,避险接管场景自动驾驶智能行驶水平更为可靠。Based on the data of takeover cases in autonomous driving road testing,this paper analyzes the types of takeover interventions,and sets up three types of risky scenarios:trust,risk-avoidance,and optimization takeovers.By developing a CARLA-SUMO joint simulation platform under the OpenCDA framework and using the counterfactual inferencemethod,theoperating conditions of autonomous driving in risky scenarios are deduced from the road-testing datasets.From the perspectives of safety,efficiency,comfort,etc.,multi-dimensional evaluation indicators for the intelligent driving level of autonomous driving are proposed.The results show that the counterfactual inference method is capable of achieving the deduction of risky scenarios under the takeover conditions.In similar risky scenarios,the intelligent driving of autonomous passenger cars is better than that of trucks.The differences in fundamental elements and operational indicators among risky scenarios are significant,and intelligent driving in risk-avoidance takeover scenarios is more reliable compared to trust takeover scenarios.

关 键 词：交通运输 自动驾驶路测 接管干预 险态场景 反事实推断 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]