蒙阴流域主要水文要素演变规律及归因分析  

Evolution Law and Attribution Analysis of Main Hydrological Elements in Mengyin Watershed

作　　者：姚鸿韬 李彬权[1] 仇知雨 赵建飞 梁忠民[1] YAO Hong-tao;LI Bin-quan;QIU Zhi-yu;ZHAO Jian-fei;LIANG Zhong-min(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Jiangsu Surveying and Design Institute of Water Resources Co.,Ltd.,Yangzhou 225217,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225217

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第2期33-37,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52379007);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022032);浙江省水利厅科技计划项目(RC2214)。

摘　　要：研究水文要素的演变规律及其变化归因,对于水资源管理及洪旱灾害防治具有重要意义。以山东省蒙阴流域为研究区域,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Pettitt检验法和BG启发式分割算法,对1970~2020年汛期降水量、最大1 d洪量和年最大洪峰模数进行趋势和突变检验,对比2010~2020年降雨径流关系与山东省已有水文图集成果,对蒙阴流域水文要素演变规律及其归因进行分析。结果表明,蒙阴流域1970~2020年各水文要素均未发生显著突变,汛期降水量呈不显著上升趋势,最大1 d洪量和年最大洪峰模数呈不显著下降趋势;与已有水文图集成果相比,在相同的降雨条件下,蒙阴流域现阶段次洪径流深呈减小趋势;蒙阴流域水文要素演变受水库工程影响较小,土地利用变化和社会经济发展是其主要驱动因素。The study of the evolution of hydrological factors and their causes of change is important for water resources management and flood and drought control.The linear trend method,Mann-Kendall trend test,Pettitt test,and BG heuristic splitting algorithm were used to test the trend and abrupt change of precipitation,maximum 1-day flood volume,and annual maximum peak modulus in the flood season of Mengyin watershed in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2020.The relationship between rainfall and runoff from 2010 to 2020 was compared with the results of the existing hydrographic atlas of Shandong Province.The evolution law of hydrological factors in Mengyin watershed was analyzed and the attribution analysis was carried out.The results show that there is no significant abrupt change in main hydrological factors in Mengyin watershed from 1970 to 2020.The precipitation in flood season shows an insignificant increasing trend,while the maximum 1-day flood volume and annual maximum peak modulus show an insignificant decreasing trend.Compared with the results of the existing hydrographic atlas,the runoff depth of Mengyin watershed shows a decreasing trend at the present stage with the same rainfall conditions.The evolution of hydrological factors in Mengyin watershed is less affected by reservoir projects,with land use change and socio-economic development being the major driving factors.

关 键 词：趋势检验 突变检验 降雨径流关系 归因分析 蒙阴流域 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P339[天文地球—水文科学]