基于Optuna-CatBoost和CRITIC评价法的水电机组劣化趋势评估  

Deterioration Trend Assessment of Hydroelectric Units Based on Optuna-CatBoost and CRITIC Evaluation Method

作　　者：杨峰 肖峰 师博威 仝杰[3] 李超顺[2] YANG Feng;XIAO Feng;SHI Bo-wei;TONG Jie;LI Chao-shun(Zhelin Hydropower Plant,State Grid Corporation of Jiangxi Province,Jiujiang 332000,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Institute of Energy Consumption,China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江西省电力有限公司柘林水电厂,江西九江332000 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国电力科学研究院用能研究所,北京100192

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第2期206-210,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(5700-202325298A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：得益于日趋完善的状态监测系统,抽水蓄能电站记录了海量机组运行信息,为开展抽蓄机组劣化趋势评估提供了可靠的数据保障。为此,提出了一种基于Optuna-CatBoost和CRITIC(Criteria Importance though Intercrieria Correlation)评价法的水电机组劣化评估方法。首先利用最大互信息系数(Maximal Information Coefficient)筛选出机组关键工况系数;然后利用Optuna对CatBoost进行参数寻优,建立Optuna-CatBoost水电机组劣化趋势评估模型;最后基于CRITIC评价法对各通道劣化序列客观赋权,生成机组整机劣化序列。试验结果表明,所提模型的精度优于其他对比模型,能很好地反映机组整机劣化趋势。Benefiting from the increasingly improved condition monitoring system,pumped storage power stations have recorded a huge amount of unit operation information,which provides a reliable data guarantee for carrying out the assessment of the deterioration trend of pumped storage units.Therefore,a hydropower unit deterioration assessment method based on Optuna-CatBoost and criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC)evaluation method is proposed.Firstly,the maximum mutual information coefficient(MIC)was used to screen out the key working condition coefficients of the unit.Optuna was used to optimize the parameters of CatBoost,and the Optuna-CatBoost hydropower unit deterioration trend assessment model was established.Finally,the deterioration sequences of each channel were objectively weighted based on the CRITIC evaluation method,and the deterioration sequences of the whole unit were generated.The experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of other comparative models,and it can well reflect the deterioration trend of the whole unit.

关 键 词：水电机组 劣化评估 Optuna CatBoost 最大互信息系数 CRITIC评价法 

分 类 号：TV734.21[水利工程—水利水电工程]