气候变暖背景下大连南部地区降水演变规律分析  

Analysis on the evolution of precipitation in the Southern Region of Dalian City under the background of global climate warming

作　　者：张慧哲 胡素端[2] ZHANG Huizhe;HU Suduan(Dalian Jinpu New Area Modern Agricultural Production Development Service Center,Dalian 116100;Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024)

机构地区：[1]大连金普新区现代农业生产发展服务中心,大连116100 [2]大连理工大学,大连116024

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2025年第2期59-63,92,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：自然资源部海岸带科学与综合管理重点实验室开放基金(2021COSIM1005)。

摘　　要：为研究气候变化对降水的影响,选取大连南部地区大连气象站1951—2016年共66 a的降水数据,采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall检验、重标极差(R/S)分析法、Pettitt突变检验、滑动T检验、Morlet小波分析对年降水序列的趋势、突变、周期及降水演变趋势进行分析,结果表明:1951—2016年大连南部地区年降水时间序列呈现不明显下降趋势,且预测未来10 a降水仍维持减少趋势;年降水时间序列的突变年份为1979年;年降水时间序列存在4类尺度的周期变化规律,且存在4个明显的主周期,分别为58 a、19 a、25 a和5 a。降水事件以暴雨为主,历时以2 d为主,5 d及以上降水事件发生率与贡献率呈现显著下降趋势,中雨、1~2 d降水发生率与贡献率均呈现上升趋势。通过对降水演变规律的研究,为大连市水资源规划利用、预防旱涝灾害等提供一些参考依据。To study the impact of climate change on precipitation,66 years of precipitation data from Dalian Meteorological Station from 1951 to 2016 were selected.The moving average method,Mann-Kendall test,rescaled range(R/S)analysis,Pettitt mutation test,sliding T test,and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend,mutation,period of annual precipitation series,and precipitation structure evolution trend.The results showed that the annual precipitation series in the southern region of Dalian from 1951 to 2016 showed an insignificant downward trend,and it is predicted that the precipitation will continue to decrease in the next 10 years;The mutation year of the annual precipitation series is 1979;There are four types of periodic changes in the annual precipitation series,with four distinct main periods of 58,19,25,and 5 years,respectively.The precipitation event is dominated by rainstorm,and the duration is mainly 2 d.The occurrence rate and contribution rate of precipitation events of 5 d and above show a significant downward trend,while the occurrence rate and contribution rate of moderate precipitation and 1-2 d precipitation show an upward trend.By studying the evolution of precipitation,some reference is provided for water resource planning and utilization,as well as for preventing drought and flood disasters.

关 键 词：气候变化 大连市 降水演变规律 MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV877