人口负增长对城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性的影响——基于2022年-2050年基金收支精算预测数据  

The Impact of Negative Population Growth on the Sustainability of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Workers:Based on Actuarial Projections of Fund Revenues and Expenditures from 2022 to 2050

作　　者：王云多[1] 安赛雨 Yunduo Wang;Saiyu An(School of Economics and Business Administration,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《财务与金融》2024年第6期60-67,74,共9页Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“生育率下降与预期寿命延长双重约束下养老保险制度可持续性研究”(批准号16BRK016);黑龙江省社会科学规划基金“人口老龄化与城市化双重约束下黑龙江省城乡居民养老保险待遇适度水平研究”(批准号:22RKB166)。

摘　　要：随着人口负增长时代的到来,劳动人口将不断下降,老龄人口不断增加,社会养老负担将越来越重,养老保险将面临严峻挑战。根据养老金精算平衡的方法,构建统账结合制度下的养老保险基金收支精算模型,以人口负增长带来的参保人数下降为切入点,对2022年-2050年我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支情况进行预测。研究发现,我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金存在收支不平衡现象,预计在2030年左右基金收入小于支出,出现收不抵支的情况;到2045年基金累计结余将耗尽并出现累计余额赤字,此后基金缺口将继续扩大。研究结果表明,我国的城镇职工基本养老保险基金不具备长期可持续性。据此,为实现我国养老保险基金的可持续发展,政府应采取多种措施,促进人口高质量发展,使各年龄段的人力资本价值最大化,缩小代际人力资本差距,减轻社会养老保障压力;优化养老保险制度设计,建立多支柱养老保险制度体系,确保养老金体系的可持续发展。With the advent of the era of negative population growth,the labor force will continue to decline,the elderly population will continue to increase,the social pension burden will become heavier,and the pension insurance will face severe challenges.According to the method of pension actuarial balance,an actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund under the unified accounts system is constructed,and predicts the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund of urban workers in China from 2022 to 2050 by taking the decline of the insured number caused by the negative population growth as the entry point.It is found that the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers in China are not balanced.It is expected that the fund income will be less than the expenditure around 2030,and the revenue will not cover the expenditure;by 2045,the accumulated balance of the fund will be exhausted and the accumulated balance deficit will appear,and the fund gap will continue to expand thereafter.The research results show that the urban workers'basic endowment insurance fund in China does not have long-term sustainability.Based on this,in order to achieve the sustainable development of China's pension insurance fund,the government should take a variety of measures to promote the high-quality development of population,maximize the value of human capital at all ages,narrow the intergenerational human capital gap,and reduce the pressure of social pension security;optimize the design of the pension insurance system,establish a multi-pillar pension insurance system,and enhance the sustainability of the pension system.

关 键 词：人口负增长 养老保险 可持续性 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]