经济制裁对俄罗斯卢布汇率的影响:以俄乌冲突为例  

The Impact of Sanctions on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble:An Example of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：侯蕾 倪淑慧 郑晓琳 Hou Lei;Ni Shuhui;Zheng Xiaolin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际发展研究室 [3]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

出　　处：《欧亚经济》2025年第1期82-102,132,134,共23页Journal of Eurasian Economy

基　　金：中国社会科学院数据库专项资助项目(项目编号:2024SJK019)。

摘　　要：该文依据一套独特的对俄制裁数据分析了经济制裁对俄罗斯卢布汇率的影响。相比以往研究,该文使用的数据覆盖了2014年克里米亚事件和2022年俄乌冲突时期的制裁数据,细分了制裁措施的类型并且区分了制裁发起方为美国单一制裁或多国协同制裁,由此细化了制裁措施对卢布汇率的影响。数据展示了以美国为首的西方国家对俄制裁的时序特征,即在短期内以密集的金融制裁和进口限制为主,对俄出口限制则随着对俄出口产品依赖度的降低而均匀实施,呈对俄逐步“脱钩”态势。实证研究结果显示,俄乌冲突爆发两年多时间里,制裁总体上导致俄卢布汇率贬值,其中主要是金融制裁发挥作用,进出口限制的效果在短期内并不显著;与2014年克里米亚事件时期美国单独实施制裁相比,2022年多国协同制裁的效果更为显著。This paper analyzes the impact of economic sanctions on Russian ruble based on a special data set about Western sanctions against Russia.Integrating the data about both the Crimean events in2014 and the period of the Ukraine crisis,the paper conducts a detailed estimation of the effect of the sanctions on the exchange rate of Russian ruble by subcategorizing the sanctions and thus differentiates solitary sanctions initiated by the US and coordinated sanctions by more countries.Our data analysis reveals the time-order features of the US-led sanctions.The results of this empirical study indicate that the sanctions have been,in general terms,the direct cause of ruble depreciation within the first two years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and in the meantime,financial sanctions were playing the key role while the effect of trade restrictions is not adequately significant.The effect of the coordinated sanctions by multiple countries is more considerable compared with the solitary ones implemented solely by the US.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 俄乌冲突 经济制裁 卢布汇率 

分 类 号：F835.12[经济管理—金融学] D851.2[政治法律—政治学]