长期护理保险制度何以破解“一人失能,全家失衡”困局——基于农村子女劳动供给的视角  

How Long-term Care Insurance Can Alleviate the Plight of“One Person’s Incapacity,the Whole Family’s Imbalance”:From the Perspective of Rural Adult Children’s Labor Supply

作　　者：卢素兰 钟海霞 冯艳维 宁满秀 LU Sulan;ZHONG Haixia;FENG Yanwei;NING Manxiu(College of Economics and Management,FujianAgriculture and Forestry University;College of Rural Revitalization,FujianAgriculture and Forestry University)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院 [2]福建农林大学乡村振兴学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2025年第1期155-174,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“城乡医保统筹制度对流动老人医疗保障水平的影响研究”(编号:19YJC630111)。

摘　　要：建立长期护理保险制度,是积极应对人口老龄化,实现失能老年人老有所养和缓解“一人失能,全家失衡”困境的重要举措。本文将长期护理保险政策试点开展作为准自然实验,采用2014年、2016年、2018年和2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,运用双重差分法考察长期护理保险政策实施对农村子女劳动供给的影响。研究发现:第一,长期护理保险政策实施对农村子女劳动供给产生显著的正向影响;第二,异质性分析表明,长期护理保险政策实施能够对老一代、女性和家庭收入水平低的农村子女劳动供给产生更加明显的促进效应;第三,机制分析表明,长期护理保险政策实施通过降低农村子女对失能父母的照料支持促进农村子女劳动供给。上述研究结果表明,长期护理保险政策实施能有效缓解农村家庭赡老压力,并释放农村年轻劳动力。本文认为,需持续推进长期护理保险政策,将保障对象扩至更大范围的农村地区,并因地制宜地实施差异化的农村长期护理保险政策;同时,结合农村劳动力结构特点,建设农村专业护理队伍,为农村失能老人提供更专业化、更有针对性的护理照料服务。The establishment of the long-term care(LTC)insurance system is an important measure to respond positively to the aging of the population,achieve a sense of security for the disabled elderly and alleviate the plight of the“one person’s incapacity,the whole family’s imbalance”in old age.This study treats the pilot of the LTC insurance as a quasi-natural experiment and utilizes panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)collected in 2014,2016,2018,and 2020.Employing the difference-in-differences(DID)method,it investigates the impact of the implementation of LTC insurance on the labor supply of rural adult children.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the LTC insurance policy has a significant positive impact on the labor supply of rural adult children.Secondly,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the LTC insurance policy has a more significantly positive impact on the labor supply of the older generation,women,and rural adult children from lower-income families.Thirdly,the mechanism analysis shows that the implementation of LTC insurance policy promotes the labor supply of rural adult children by reducing the care support of rural children to their elderly parents.The above research results indicate that the implementation of LTC insurance policy can effectively alleviate the pressure of elderly care for rural families and increase the supply of the rural labor force.Therefore,there is a need to continuously promote the LTC insurance policy,extending its coverage to a wider range of rural areas,and implementing differentiated LTC insurance policies in rural areas according to local conditions.At the same time,based on the characteristics of rural labor structure,a professional nursing team in rural areas should be established to provide more specialized and targeted nursing care services for the disabled elderly in rural communities.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper focuses on rural areas where the care system for the disabled elderly i

关 键 词：长期护理保险政策 农村子女 劳动供给 家庭老年照料 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]