民意分裂与认知强化:民调对岛内“蓝白合”事件的影响——以2024年台湾地区领导人选举为例  

Public Opinion Polarization and Cognitive Reinforcement:The Impact of Polls on the“Blue-White Cooperation”in Taiwan Region——A Case Study of the 2024 Taiwan Regional Leadership Election

作　　者：艾明江[1] AI Mingjiang

机构地区：[1]中共厦门市委党校统战理论教研部,福建厦门361027

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2025年第1期27-38,共12页Taiwan Research Journal

摘　　要：台湾地区民调作为重要的舆论传播工具,深刻影响了岛内政局。分析2024年台湾地区领导人选举中的“蓝白合”议题,可以发现民调建构了议题并推动了其发展。岛内民调格局呈现一种“民意分裂”走向,为“蓝白合”奠定了舆论基础,由此导致岛内政党关系出现竞争与合作并存现象。同时,民调分布格局也进一步促成蓝白双方均采取了有利于己的自我强化认知,导致双方在合作中不断增强和巩固自我优势。民调传播角度的研究为分析岛内政党竞争与合作提供了一个新的视角。As an important tool for public opinion dissemination, polls in Taiwan region have a profound impact on the island's political development. This article examines the “Blue-White Cooperation” issue in the 2024 Taiwan regional leadership election, analyzing how polls played a role in constructing and promoting the issue. The research reveals a trend of “public opinion polarization” in the polls. This polarization not only laid the groundwork for the “Blue-White Cooperation” but also created a dynamic of both competition and cooperation among political parties. In addition, the distribution pattern in the polls encouraged both the “Blue” camp(Kuomintang) and the “White” camp(pepole in Taiwan's Party) to adopt self-reinforcing cognitive strategies that favored their respective interests. These strategies, in turn, reinforced and consolidated each party's advantages during their cooperation. Research from the perspective of poll dissemination provides a new lens for analyzing the competition and cooperation among political parties in Taiwan region.

关 键 词：民调 国民党 民众党 台湾地区领导人选举 “蓝白合” 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]