中国的中东政策驱动力:大国竞争抑或地区合作  

The Driving Force of China’s Middle East Policy:Great Power Competition or Regional Cooperation

作　　者：牛新春 Niu Xinchun

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学中国阿拉伯研究院

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2025年第1期45-65,148,149,共23页West Asia and Africa

基　　金：2022年度国家社科基金重大项目“阿拉伯文明西传的路径与影响研究”(22&ZD251)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：大国竞争与新时代“换挡提速”的中阿合作几乎同时到来,成为决定中国的中东政策的两大关键因素。对这两大因素的作用及其相互关系的判断,是当前中国的中东政策辩论的核心问题。大国竞争与地区利益相互影响,美、中两国的中东政策交叉作用,极易颠倒因果关系。同西方的叙事逻辑相反,不是中国利用中东撬动大国关系,而是大国关系塑造中国在中东的利益,美国遏制中国的政策影响着中国的中东政策。中美博弈不是中国的中东政策的主轴和主要决定因素,中国在中东地区的政治、经济和安全利益才是中国的中东政策的内生动力,但是中美全球博弈必然影响中国和中东国家的行为。在美国你输我赢、你兴我衰的零和博弈理念影响下,中国同美国在中东地区合作的现实基础薄弱,中东国家“选边站”的压力增大。中国、美国和中东国家合纵连横的前景若隐若现,中国的中东政策面临的国际环境和现实挑战将变得越来越复杂,中国与中东国家的关系将面临前所未有的新挑战。Great power competition and China-Arab warm relationships almost come at the same time,and become the two key factors determining China’s Middle East policy.Judging the role of these two factors and their interrelationship is at the heart of China’s current Middle East policy debate.Since great power competition and regional interests influence each other,and America’s Middle East policy and China’s Middle East policy intersect with each other,it is very easy to reverse the causal relationship.Contrary to the narrative logic of the West,it is not China that uses the Middle East to leverage the relations between major powers,but the relations between great powers to shape China’s interests in the Middle East,and the policy of containing China by the United States affects China’s Middle East policy.The competition between China and the United States is not the main axis and the main determinant of China’s Middle East policy,but China’s political,economic and security interests in the Middle East are the internal driving force of China’s Middle East policy.However,the global competition between China and the United States will inevitably affect the behavior of China and Middle East countries.Under the influence of the zero-sum game concept of the United States,the practical basis for cooperation between China and the United States in the Middle East is weak,and the pressure on the Middle East countries to“choose sides”is increasing.The prospect of China,the United States and Middle East countries tangling relationships is looming,and China’s Middle East policy will become more and more complicated,and China’s relations with Middle East countries will face unprecedented new challenges.

关 键 词：中国的中东政策 大国竞争 美国的中东政策 “全球南方” 中阿合作 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D822[政治法律—政治学]