撒哈拉以南非洲中产阶层的崛起及其影响  

The Rise of the Middle Class in Sub-Saharan Africa and Its Influence

作　　者：梁益坚 王瑶 Liang Yijian;Wang Yao

机构地区：[1]云南大学“一带一路”研究院 [2]云南大学国际关系研究院非洲研究中心 [3]云南经济管理学院

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2025年第1期121-146,152,共27页West Asia and Africa

基　　金：国家社科基金西部项目“百年变局下非洲中产阶层的新动向及中国应对研究”(23XGJ001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：进入21世纪以来,撒哈拉以南非洲的中产阶层正在崛起,其人口规模和比例都实现了较快增长,并表现出增速快、范围广和潜力大的显著特点。该群体崛起的主要原因可以概括为以下几个方面:非洲地区独立自主发展战略为中产阶层崛起创造了良好的外部环境;政治相对稳定和国家治理能力提升为中产阶层的崛起提供了前提条件;经济持续增长和私营部门繁荣是中产阶层崛起的核心动因;基础设施改善和生育率降低等社会发展因素构成中产阶层崛起的“催化剂”;减贫成效显著成为中产阶层崛起的“加速器”。中产阶层崛起的巨大市场潜力和强劲内生动力已经并将继续对撒哈拉以南非洲的政治稳定、经济发展和社会融合产生积极影响,助力非洲本土民主、非洲制造和本土文化的发展繁荣,提升撒哈拉以南非洲国家的国际政治、经济地位。当然,它也会伴随着一些潜在的负面影响,这些负面影响在某些情况下可能会反噬其崛起本身。与此同时,撒哈拉以南非洲中产阶层的浮动阶层仍然较为脆弱,存在返贫的风险,需要进一步夯实其发展基础,延续其增长态势。Since the beginning of the 21st century,the middle class in sub-Saharan Africa has been on the rise,with rapid growth in both population size and proportion,exhibiting characteristics of rapid growth,wide scope and high potential.The main reasons for the rise can be summarized as follows:Africa’s strategies of independent and autonomous development have created a favorable external environment for the rise;relative political stability and the improvement of national governance capacity have provided the prerequisites for the rise;sustained economic growth and the prosperity of the private sector have been the core motivation for the rise;social development factors,such as infrastructure improvement and fertility reduction have constituted the“catalyst”for the rise;and the remarkable success of poverty reduction has become the“accelerator”for the rise.The huge market potential and strong endogenous power of the rise of the middle class has had and will continue to have some positive impacts on political stability,economic development and social integration in sub-Saharan Africa,contributing to the development and prosperity of African local democracy,manufacturing and traditional culture,and enhancing the international political and economic status of sub-Saharan African countries.However,it will also bring some potential negative impacts,which in some cases may backfire on the rise itself.At the same time,the floating middle class in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile and at risk of returning to poverty,so it is necessary to further consolidate its development foundation and continue its growth trend.

关 键 词：中产阶层 撒哈拉以南非洲 经济发展 政治治理 

分 类 号：D74[政治法律—政治学] F14[政治法律—中外政治制度]