基于GIS的攀枝花芒果气候适宜性精细化区划  

Refined Division of Climate Suitability of Mango in Panzhihua Based on GIS

作　　者：刘春艳 尹雪梅[2] 杜成勋 彭永康 LIU Chunyan;YIN Xuemei;DU Chengxun;PENG Yongkang(Panzhihua Miyi County Meteorological Bureau,Sichuan,Miyi 617200;Panzhihua Meteorological Bureau,Sichuan,Panzhihua 617000;PanzhihuaMiyi County Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau,Sichuan,Miyi 617200)

机构地区：[1]四川省攀枝花市米易县气象局,米易617200 [2]四川省攀枝花市气象局,攀枝花617000 [3]四川省攀枝花市米易县农业农村局,米易617200

出　　处：《气象科技》2025年第1期135-144,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202108)资助。

摘　　要：为充分利用攀枝花气候资源、合理规划芒果产业布局、促进芒果高产稳产提供科学依据。利用攀枝花1993-2022年4个国家站和26个区域站现有年份气象资料、芒果生育期观测资料、攀枝花数字高程和乡镇边界,筛选出7个影响攀枝花芒果品质和产量的气候因子和2个地形因子作区划指标,建立气候适宜性指标空间分布模型和综合生态适宜度模型,采用层次分析法和自然断点法,运用GIS完成攀枝花芒果气候适宜性精细化区划。结果表明:攀枝花绝大部地区热量能满足芒果生长发育需求,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温是制约芒果种植布局的关键气候指标,即在种植中应首要考虑芒果能否安全越冬。优势种植区(最适宜区和适宜区)占33%,分布在沿主要河流海拔1600 m以下地段;次适宜区分布在适宜区和不可种植区之间,占17%,气象风险较高;不可种植区占50%,北部海拔1750 m、南部2000 m以上大部地区不可种。区划结果经初步验证与实际种植情况基本相符。Panzhihua City’s unique climatic resources are exceptionally suitable for mango cultivation.Since the experimental planting in the 1970s,it has become China’s and even the world’s highest-altitude,highest-latitude,and latest-maturing large-scale mango production base.This study aims to provide a scientific basis for fully utilising Panzhihua’s climatic resources,rationally planning the mango industry layout,and promoting high and stable mango yields.Utilising comprehensive meteorological data from 1993 to 2022 from four national stations and 26 regional stations in Panzhihua City,along with detailed mango growth period observation data,Panzhihua digital elevation model,and precise township boundaries,this research thoroughly considers both climate and topography factors.Nine critical suitability indicators are carefully selected:mean temperature of the coldest month,annual extreme minimum temperature,annual mean temperature,accumulated temperature of≥10℃,average temperature during flowering period,number of days with maximum temperature of≥35℃during flowering period,rainy days during flowering period,slope,and aspect.Advanced spatial distribution models for climate suitability indicators and a comprehensive ecological suitability model are meticulously established.The Analytic Hierarchy Process and comprehensive ecological suitability method are rigorously employed,utilising state-of-the-art GIS technology to complete a refined zoning of comprehensive climatic suitability for mango cultivation in Panzhihua.The meteorological indicators affecting mango cultivation distribution are first systematically classified,dividing the entire city into plantable and non-plantable areas.Within the plantable areas,climate and topography are comprehensively considered to further delineate the most suitable,suitable,and marginally suitable zones with high precision.Results indicate that the vast majority of Panzhihua’s regions provide sufficient heat for mango growth and development throughout the year.The mean

关 键 词：芒果 攀枝花 GIS 生态适宜度 气候区划 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S16[农业科学—农业气象学]