中美经贸关系:特朗普1.0冲击与特朗普2.0前瞻  

China-US Economic and Trade Relations:The Impact of“Trump 1.0”and the Prospect of“Trump 2.0”

作　　者：朱福林 ZHU Fulin(Foreign Investment Research Institute,Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院外国投资研究所,北京100710

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2025年第2期3-16,共14页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“RCEP对亚太区域价值链重构的影响机制及应对策略研究”(22&ZD178);国家自然科学基金面上项目“生产网络视角下服务业技术进步影响因素、机制及路径优化研究”(72073139)。

摘　　要：经过四十多年发展,中美之间已经形成了“你中有我、我中有你”的共生格局,然而在美国“特朗普主义”的干扰下,中美经贸关系日趋紧张。中美双边货物贸易规模较大但呈下降趋势;美国对中国货物贸易逆差缩小但规模依然巨大;中美货物贸易依赖不对称格局未变但程度有所下降;特朗普1.0“关税战”以来,中国对美国货物贸易结构稳中有变。从价值链视角审视美国对中国货物贸易逆差的形成发现,美国对中国货物贸易逆差很大程度上是由东亚地区集体创造的,只是由于分工角色原因反映在中美经常账户上。在特朗普2.0时代,经济发展模式的冲突可能会越来越激烈,美国推出的对华经贸政策总基调在可见预期内不会变。中美经贸关系呈现挂钩与脱钩并存的二元格局,中美之间将围绕关税再起争端,美国联合盟友遏制中国策略持续推进,中美科技竞争越发激烈,中美“结构性改革”议题磋商任务艰巨。因此,在特朗普2.0时代,要提高战略认知,避免重大误判,竭尽所能稳定中美总体关系;知己知彼,讲求策略,以事实为依据提升中美经贸谈判质量;坚持融入全球化,毫不动摇全面深化改革,内外结合抵制脱钩。Since the Sino-US tariff war,the Sino-US economic and trade relations have shown the following characteristics:First,the bilateral trade volume of goods between China and the United States is still high but generally shows a downward trend.Among them,Chinas exports of goods to the United States are significantly affected by the impact of the tariff war.Second,the trade deficit in goods between China and the United States has narrowed but remains huge,and China is still the largest source country of the trade deficit in goods for the United States.Third,the asymmetric pattern of dependence on Sino-US trade in goods has not changed but has been somewhat convergent.At present,the basic pattern of Chinas dependence of trade in goods on the United States is stronger than the United Statesdependence on China,and there has been no significant change in this pattern.Chinas surplus with the United States includes the surplus of other members of the East Asian region with the United States.The US trade deficit with China is largely created by the East Asian region collectively,but due to different roles in the division of labor,it is reflected in the current account between China and the United States.Therefore,the United States“tariff war”against China,rather than the entire East Asia region,cannot fundamentally change the bilateral deficit caused by the pattern of“East Asian production and American consumption”.It will only shift the deficit from China to other countries in the East Asia region as a result of micro-adjustments in market forces,namely industrial transfer.In the era of“Trump 2.0”,the overall economic and trade relations between China and the United States will present a“dual pattern”of partial linkage and partial decoupling,that is,selective decoupling in some areas,especially in key areas identified by the United States,while maintaining economic and trade relations in non-strategic areas.There is a high probability that China and the United States will have another dispute over tariffs,an

关 键 词：中美经贸关系 特朗普1.0 特朗普2.0 脱钩 全面深化改革 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]