徐州引领淮海经济区高质量发展的动力机制及空间效应研究  

Research on the Dynamic Mechanism and Spatial Effect of Xuzhou Leading the High Quality Development of Huaihai Economic Zone

作　　者：刘宁宁[1] 张晶[1] 罗璐娜 LIU Ning-ning;ZHANG Jing;LUo Lu-na(Xuzhou University of Technology,Xuzhou 221018,China)

机构地区：[1]徐州工程学院,江苏徐州221018

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2025年第1期41-54,共14页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(24YJA630050);国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJL090)。

摘　　要：淮海经济区地处苏鲁豫皖四省交界,区内经济发展差异较大、协调度不高。本文以淮海经济区核心区域10个城市为研究对象,选取人均GDP为响应变量,产业结构质量化与产业发展合理化为解释变量,科技水平、政府支出等要素为控制变量,借助莫兰指数进行空间相关性检验,结果表明淮海经济区核心区各城市之间的空间相关性显著。采用LM检验、Hausman检验以及Wald检验,选取时空双固定效应下的空间杜宾模型,对淮海经济区核心区经济发展进行空间溢出效应分析,得出产业发展合理化、科技投入、政府支出、市场需求、城市化水平等要素对徐州引领淮海经济区高质量发展有着正向的溢出效应;产业结构质量化、资本投入、劳动力资源等要素对徐州引领经济高质量发展有着负向的溢出效应。Huaihai Economic Zone is located at the junction of Jiangsu,Shandong,Henan and Anhui provinces,and the economic development of the region are quite different and the degree of coordination is not high.In this paper,10 cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone were taken as the research object,per capita GDP was selected as the response variable,the quality of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial development were the explanatory variables,and the factors such as science and technology level and government expenditure were used as the control variables.Using LM test,Hausman test and Wald test,the spatial Durbin model under the spatiotemporal double fixed effect was selected to analyze the spatial spillover effect of the economic development of the core area of the Huaihai Economic Zone,and it was concluded that the rationalization of industrial development,scientific and technological investment,government expenditure,market demand,urbanization level and other factors have a positive spillover effect on Xuzhou leading the high-quality development of the Huaihai Economic Zone.Factors such as the quality of industrial structure,capital investment,and labor resources have a negative spillover effect on Xuzhou's leading high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：区域中心城市 高质量发展 产业升级 空间效应 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]